Today a new report from Gemini reveals Us crypto investors will likely take a Presidential candidate's crypto stance Into account when voting in November Robin Hood CEO Vlad tenev tells CNBC Crypto signals a shift in how financial Services are offered and delivered and Swan Bitcoin Steven lopa weighs in on The September effect on crypto and how Each potential election outcome could Influence Prices well welcome to cnbc's crypto World I'm TAA mck crypto prices are in The green with Bitcoin trading above $56,500 as of around noon Eastern after Rebounding last night from its worst Week in more than a year ether climbed About 1 and a half% and salana Rose Nearly 4.5% to $134 September is a historically weak Month for Bitcoin and risk assets at Large last week Bitcoin fell 9% for its Worst weekly performance since August 2023 Investors have been frustrated as Bitcoin has been lacking major Catalyst For several weeks analysts say that in Their absence the Bitcoin price is Likely to be extra sensitive to macro Factors and to continue consolidating The upcoming presidential election in The US is widely considered the next Meaningful Catalyst for Bitcoin which Has been stuck between $55,000 and
$70,000 for most of the year after Reaching its all-time high above $73,000 Back in March as we told you yesterday Bernstein is forecasting that the Outcome of the president presidential Election will lead to a significant Impact on the price of Bitcoin which We'll come back to in a Moment okay let's take a look at the top Stories a new report from Gemini reveals That the crypto markets are poised for a Rebound although regulatory concerns Remain a hurdle for those who do not yet Invest in digital assets according to Those surveyed in the crypto exchange's 2024 Global state of crypto report the Vast majority 65% said they hold crypto For its long-term investment potential The report also revealed that in the United States 37% of crypto owners Surveyed hold some crypto through an ETF And 133% own crypto exclusively through An ETF spot crypto ETFs of course were Introduced in the US this year also Among those who own crypto in the US 73% Said they plan to consider a Presidential candidate stance on crypto When they head to the polls in November The report noted that despite Significant headwinds adoption of Digital assets has remained steady in The US UK France and Singapore in recent Years next Robin Hood CEO Vlad tenv says Crypto will prove to be a Big Boon to
Innovation and financial services over Time and that the US will get there in Terms of acceptance while speaking to CNBC at Goldman sachs's communic copia Tech conference this morning ten of was Asked where crypto fits into the Platform's business strategy especially After announcing in June its acquisition Of global crypto exchange bitstamp ten Of said that crypto is about more than Making trades and placing bets he thinks It could be a major upgrade to fin I Think there's a more interesting view of Crypto which is that it's an Infrastructure upgrade and a shift in How financial services are offered and Delivered and if you look at uh Blockchains and the efficiency with Which you can offer collateralized Lending uh trading Market making uh Clearing and settlement it really has The potential to solve a lot of the Legacy issues with the financial Infrastructure that we have in this Country and and I think over time that Will become more clear as you're seeing Growth in in products uh globally and I Do think the US will continue to embrace The technology now as Robin Hood has Expanded into the crypto space it has Also faced push back from us Regulators The company said in May that its crypto Division received a Wells notice from The SEC at the time it said the company
Attempted to work in good faith with the Agency and that its products were not Securities finally a new FBI report Reveals crypto fraud losses jumped 45% In 2023 the FBI's cryptocurrency fraud Report for 2023 which was published Yesterday shows that the agency's Internet crime complaint center received Nearly 70,000 complaints related to Crypto fraud that resulted in more than 5.5 billion dollar in reported losses of The nearly 70,000 complaints received Almost 58,000 of the victims were from The US investment schemes LED those Losses at just under $4 billion a 53% Surge from the $2.5 billion reported in 2022 at number two personal data breach Cases which led to nearly $500 million In losses tax support fraud rounded out The top three at $420 million according To the report criminals turn to crypto Because of its speed decentralized Nature and the jurisdictional challenges That come with asset recovery the FBI Encourages those targeted by crypto Fraud schemes to report a complaint on C 3.go even if a financial loss didn't Occur all right back to markets for our Main story I spoke with Steven lopa head Of private clients at Swan Bitcoin about The seasonal volatility Weighing on Bitcoin we also discussed how Bitcoin Could Faire once the US decides its next
President in November thank you so much for joining Me it's great to see you we are dealing With Some with the September effect as Expected um in Bitcoin and risk assets More ly there has been a bunch of Volatility um but you know in terms of The price action Bitcoin is for the most part unchanged Still kind of in that tight range that It's been in for most of this year can You tell us what's going on here like I Said it's a lot of movement but it's a Lot of stuff that's kind of the same What do investors need to know yeah I Completely agree with you there so not Much has happened people have gotten a Little chopped up it's up 10% it's down 10% but if you look at the last six Months very little has changed you know There's been a lot of noise along the Way that people have gotten caught up in Um so a question I see a lot along these Lines is like why didn't Bitcoin go Higher uh we had this great run up into The ETFs post the ETFs and then it it Got kind of range bound and so why is That a big factor there is we had huge Pockets of Supply that got on locked and Were sold into the market you have the US Marshals selling in excess of a Billion dollars from the Silk Road coins You have Germany selling $3 billion and
You have the very long awaited Mount Gaau distributions where people who have Been waiting for these coins eight years Plus got their coins finally uh if You're waiting to receive some Bitcoin From a bankruptcy for over eight years Some of those people are going to sell Some of those coins I think it was Relative L muted compared to what it Could have been this was a very billions Of dollars here um but definitely some Sell pressure there and so during that Time period where we went sideways there Was a lot of selling from kind of Surprise kind of somewhat unexpected Pockets but we are on the other side of That now the US Marshals have very Little left that is currently available For sale we're through pretty much Through the mount goau distributions and On the horizon the FTX bankruptcy is Gonna wind U gonna return funds to Clients in Q4 this is coming back as Cash 16 billion um we will assume that Some percentage of those people who were Trading on FTX are just going to Immediately Reby Bitcoin in other assets So whether that's 30 40 50% of that Money definitely some buy pressure Coming in the next three Months uh let's dig a little bit more Into that macro so What what what would you say is driving Things because next to the macro we also
Have the election um so you know we are Looking forward to the announcement of Rate Cuts probability of 50 basis points Of a cut is down for September but more Than 125 um by December is up so how do You since we're also contending with the US presidential Election is there a dominant theme Here Yeah they're both important right and And so both in the past right we had a Runup uh and I'm I'm saying this's very Non-politically just as much as this Impacts markets um markets in in in the Bitcoin space in the crypto world were Very positive on Donald Trump looking Like he was going to win they ran up Then when there was the candidate switch Out you had Biden swap for uh for Harris Uh that kind of Unwound that kind of Bump Unwound and you know the elections Closer to coin flip right now so I think People just really feel there's not a Discernable Edge this is reflected in The polling data um so I think markets Would react very positively especially Bitcoin and crypto markets to a trump Presidency for for several reasons uh Mostly just vocal support of the Industry rather than opposition that Being said I think people really Overplay the risks of a Harris Presidency um I don't think I I think There's fear because the Biden administ Was pretty hostile we encountered that I
Mean you know my company had had bank Account pressure during the kind of Operation choke point days uh so we we We faced that directly and so I know the Challenges that the Biden Administration's policy um you know Meant for companies in the industry that Being said I think all of the signposts Um that we're seeing with Harris uh Continually represent a deescalation I Understand the industry wants something More solid something more concrete than What we've seen But the trend is clearly Softening not strengthening and as far As like so you have rate Cuts you have Recession probabilities and you have the Election and these are the three big Macro topics um I think the market is Pretty convinced that rates are going to Be coming down the only question is at What pace that will be positive that's a Positive kind of Liquidity um Factor the real fear right Now the thing that is uncertain is will The US see a recession and so when we See these payrolls data when we see jobs Data this is the really important factor Now not the rate Cuts it's is the Fed Going to be cutting rates into an active Recession or will they be cutting rates Into a kind of like goldilock scenario Growth Zone where the economy it's it's Not it's not you know super and growing Really rapidly but it's not a recession
That that that kind of cutting rates Into a moderating economy that's the Best case scenario the more we see of That the better assets do if the market Starts to feel that the FED is emergency Cutting rates into a recession that will Be bearish for all asset prices and so That's what people are looking for I Think that last factor that has the most Weight Here um and then going back to the Election for justice side and this is Not even a question about the election But Bernstein had a note out yesterday Kind of highlighting what a stark Difference it would be um if one Candidate were to win versus the other They were saying if Trump wins Bitcoin Could go to 8K by the end of the year And if Harris went it could fall to 40K By the end of the year um and this is Not so much about the election but it it Seems like the more bullish calls for Bitcoin are kind of getting lower and Staying below 100K um what do you make of that do you See it going higher do you think that's Fair and then what do you make of um I Don't know this Like mellowing out I guess of these Calls on bitcoin price well part of it Is we're only talking about like three Months here the end of the year isn't Too far away so these are like more
Shorter term calls I think I think a Range between 40 and 90 in the next Three months I mean I think that's more Than fair from the bear to the bull case I think that is the range will probably Settle it do I think we'll be in the six Figures by 2025 almost certainly do I Think we'll be in the six figures Regardless of who wins almost certainly Now within that kind of shorter time Frame if Trump wins in November will There be an immediate pump yes Absolutely if Harris wins could there be Some immediate sell pressure that Certainly wouldn't surprise me but over The medium term I don't think that's the Dynamic I don't think uh a Harris Presidency is Bitcoin just going down For a year or anything like That okay that's all for crypto world Today we'll be back again tomorrow and We'll see you then
