Everybody's assuming that quarter point Height is going to happen I believe you Also believe it's going to happen but What do you expecting from Jay Palace Press conference if you hold Cryptocurrency be aware the Federal Reserve meeting is today and with the Market already pricing in the almost Certainty of another 25 basis point rate Hike the bigger question is is what Comes next and will the FED continue to Raise rates until the economy breaks we Have a long time before the next fed Meeting the FED doesn't make another Decision until September 20th and so we Have two jobs reports two big CPI Reports just a lot of data between now And then so from their perspective they Have every reason to really sort of play This as as sort of loose as they can try And make sure they don't commit too hard To any individual path so here is where We stand the FED is set to raise Interest rates to a 22-year high after Their June pause fed expected to deliver Another rate hike as inflate Fight Continues the projected quarter Percentage Point hike would set the new Federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.5 Percent and let's be clear looking at The latest CPI data I.E inflation data The inflation rate is now down to three Percent off from near nine percent Almost a year ago and close close to the
Fed's Target rate of two percent what's Interesting and this will be an Interesting case in behavioral Finance Or psychology that will get studied at Business schools for years right which Is the Fed has never wavered on their Message right for the past 12 to 18 Months Powell has been resilient in Saying look we are going to see this Through until we get to two to two and a Half percent even if you assume Inflation doesn't tick back higher like We just talked about Three to two that last mile traveled is A really hard mile you've got a you've Got a Titan policy Aggressively even from here to get us to Two in our opinions unless you drop into A recession which would be Disinflationary or deflationary so we we Think the FED probably does have more Work to do that's not priced into the Market today right the market has to Reset that Um and that's going to probably create Some volatility in the back half of the Year so here at mid-year we'd kind of Fade this big move in equities the 16 17 Percent you know it's been all on Multiple expansion nothing on earnings Growth which has been well documented so You know what multiple do you want to Pay for the next dollar of earnings do You want to pay 21 22 23 times in a
Slowing growth environment and an Environment where policy is still Tightening I would be careful there and There is a difference between headline CPI at three percent and then core CPI Core CPI is still quite a bit stickier Still at 4.8 inflation as you said three Percent's not two percent three percent Is where headline CPI is right now I Think the magic number for the FED is 4.8 percent which is where core CPA CPI Is right now that number that strips out Food and fuel which are a little bit Volatile they're looking at that sort of You know sort of more steady state Inflation number and it's quite a bit Higher so I think that's important so Core CPI is the more important metric And even just three weeks ago on stage Jerome Powell said this I don't see us Getting back to two percent this year or Next year you don't I I see us making progress steady Progress on this is core inflation Headline inflation is is coming down now Is lower than core but for core Inflation I I don't see us getting to Two percent this year or next year I see Us getting there the year after 2025 Yeah core inflation two percent so You're going to be restricted for a long Time no when we well we will be Restrictive as long as we need to be but Um you know if you're if you're if rates
If inflation is coming down sharply and Is and we're confident that it's on a Path to two percent you know that would Be a different situation you would you Would begin to think about about uh About loosening policy but we're a long Way from that that's not something we're Thinking about now or in the near future Now probably the most valuable video I Want to share with you today is from Veteran trader Gareth Solway but very Quickly some of you have been asking for An earnings update on sponsor of the Channel xcad as you can see this is the Play area in the xcat app and we've been Talking about xcad for a while now Highly recommend watch this video for an Understanding on what axcat is linked Down below but just by watching YouTube Videos you earn crypto now the catch is You do have to watch at least eighty Percent of the video we can see that my Nerd has earned over 28 000 play tokens Right now valued at around two thousand One hundred dollars again just by Watching five YouTube videos a day at Least eighty percent for the last few Weeks an update today is that xcad now Offers the ability to Mint a legendary Nerd which is even more earnings up to a Hundred and fifty dollars a day so every Few days let's check back in on this and Link down below if you want to download The xcat app start earning crypto and
Finally before Gareth remember the risk In all of this is not tomorrow's I mean Today is 25 basis point rate hike the Bigger question is if you hold Cryptocurrency should we expect a Further recession If the Fed continues To tighten in an inevitably break Something so I think the risk here and Again it's it's a risk is that in the Back half of the Year inflation could Actually tick higher it's not going back To nine percent but it could go from Three percent back closer to four Percent which then has the FED in a very Different position the FED is not done In July then and needs to do more work Later this year and while in yesterday's Video we brought you the bullish Narrative Mike novogratz explaining why We are in a bull market but with Inflation still high and with the FED Still trying to engineer a soft Landing Although they've never ever done that in History it's always been a hard Landing Altcoin daily will continue to bring you Both sides of the Bitcoin so you have All the information so you can make the Best decision for you well veteran Trader friend of the channel and founder Of verified investing Gareth soloway Updates us on his reasoning why energy Costs like oil part of CPI part of Inflation will keep inflation high and Thus why the FED will push us to more
Pain all right we're going to talk a Little bit about CPI data and why Everyone's telling you out there that It's going to continue to drop I am here To break the news that it's actually Going to start to go up what does this Mean well it means inflation is going to Start to rise again this is going to Make it very hard for the FED to not Only be dovish they'll likely be more Hawkish but ultimately it's going to Make it so they cannot cut interest Rates and that is going to be very Critical when the economy starts to Stutter later this year and potentially Going into recession because remember The playbook for the FED is recession Comes for the U.S economy they lower Rates and print money well that worked When inflation was under two percent With three percent inflation and Inflation now starting to uptick almost Impossible for them to do so let's take A look at the chart here's inflation Here's where food inflation is notice It's higher than regular inflation Here's energy energy has dropped this is As of the last CPI data so energy Collapsed over the last CPI data and Again this is going back for the last Year so this is the kicker if Energy Starts to Rally inflation is going to Move up well let's take a look at some Charts so let's go right in here this is
Oil guys so check this out right so this Is oil look at the run in the last month This is where the last CPI data came out The last month oil is up 10 to 15 Percent 10 to 15 percent just in one Month think about what that's going to Do for the month over month CPI and then You go back towards a year ago and we're Getting close to the same levels which Means inflation is not going to continue To drop now let's take another chart Here I want to go back to my main viewer Here let's look at this one this is uh Gasoline look at the running gasoline up 15 to 20 percent in the last month okay 15 to 20 in the last month and look at This basically at 52 week highs if you Go back to June and July live last year We were right here we're basically right Back to that that is telling you Inflation is going to move to the upside Or at least stall here at three percent Lastly I've got to show you this guys we Talk about food right food being a key Component we saw it fit inflation and Food was still positive versus oil and Energy was negative look at this this is The DBA which is an ETF that tracks Agriculture so wheat corn all of that Stuff it's at 52-week highs up Significantly in the last month and Again year over year we're at 52-week Highs so inflation is coming back and This makes it almost impossible for the
FED to be dovish let alone cut rates When the economy gets into issues Everyone who's telling you that CPI that Consumer Price Index is going back or Inflation's going back two percent or Sub in the near future is bsing you CPI Is going to be stagnant and sticky at Three percent and it likely will uptick A little bit in the next CPI report so In summation with a slowing economy at Least with the FED trying to slow the Economy with these rate hikes as best They can yet with inflation still Sticking around you tell me down in the Comments if you're bullish like Mike Novograts like Michael Howell going into Next year or if like some of the other Experts you're expecting a further Recession comment down below like always See you tomorrow
