Hey welcome back core logic just Announced their latest housing market Forecast over the next 12 months they Also provide the top five markets in Which they believe home prices will Decrease the most over the next 12 Months as well and also something new They added they actually provided some Metros they believe are Overvalued right now I'll share those Metros here in a little bit uh but let's Go ahead and Dive Right In I have a lot To share I first want to talk about what Happened over the past 12 months uh this By the way was posted by cor logic um One day one day ago on May 7th it says Home prices Nationwide including Distress home sales which of course are Foreclosures and short sales increase Year foryear by 5.3% in March 2024 compared to the same Time frame 12 months ago also on a Month-to-month basis home prices grew by 1.2% in March compared to February now Here's the report from one year ago Because I want to look at what was our Forecast one year ago how's that Compared to this 5.5% growth rate we're Seeing right now and one year ago the Forecast was at um 4.6% so a little bit lower than the Actual reading at 5.3% something I noted as well uh when Looking at this report compared to the
Report from one year ago is that um home Prices have increased by 5.3% from 12 months ago again increased By 1.2% month to month so this is a little Bit different compared to a year ago um So one year ago posted on May 2nd 2023 um home prices overall increased by 3.1% whereas this March it increased by 5.3 also this 1.6% month-to-month gain is actually Higher than uh the reading right now at 1.2% all right let's now talk about Their forecast over the next 12 months It says our forecast indicates that home Prices Will Rise by 8% from March 2024 uh to next month and an increase by 3.7% on a year-year basis um through March of 20125 which is this right here forecast Um over the next 12 months increasing by 3.7 a small increase of 8% month to Month I also looked at their forecast From 1 month ago they were forecasting For a gain of 3.1% so now they actually upgraded that To 3.7% right now this by the way is more Or less in line with long-term averages Um home prices T increase in the range Of three uh to about 6% overall in the Long term uh so at 3.7 that's more or Less in in line with historical Norms
However this is still lower than the Previous um uh increase over the past One year up by 5.3% also your year home price gains uh For the month of March have remained Above 5% for the past five consecutive Months and on top of that they're Projected to stay that way over the next 12 months Northeastern states have Posted the biggest uh gains on a National average which is exactly been Important to you guys because in the Northeast and some parts of the Midwest We're seeing the biggest increases in Home prices whereas other areas such as Florida and Texas which are experiencing Big gains of inventory Are not experiencing the biggest Increases in prices overall it says Northeastern states continue to post the Nation's largest gains as more Americans Migrate to bedroom communities of major Cities and joined job hubs as well as Areas where household incomes are Relatively higher and can sustain the Elevated cost of home ownership we Basically have you know multi-decade Lows of housing affordability due to the Increase in rates and home prices so uh They're saying here that more people are Moving to these areas uh due to the um The job opportunities that some people Have in addition the inventory gains That were seen in States like Florida
And Texas still lag compared to the Northeast that's exactly what resi club Um posted as well about a week ago I Made a separate video about this but Overall when looking at the US uh Regarding the amount of House of for Sale of existing houses compared to one Year ago uh back in April 2023 we're Seeing SE the biggest increases actually In Florida uh Texas as well as Arizona Uh Arizona is up by 45% Texas is up by 38% and Florida up a whopping 64% there's 64% more house for sale Compared to one year ago much different Compared to Nevada down by 12% and also These Northeastern metros or Northeastern states I should say um Maine only up by 29% whereas New York is Down by 1.1% um what else do we have here Connecticut is also down by 1% as well Massachusetts only up by 7.1% also some Midwest um States um up Only by 2.6% in Illinois um up by 22% in Wisconsin and a gain of 14.6% in Michigan so because much of the Uh Midwest as well as the Northeast are Not experiencing the big increases of Inventory like we're seeing in Sun Belt States as well as Texas and some parts Of the West that's one of the main Reasons why we're seeing home prices Overall uh still going up fairly Substantially which I'll share with you
Guys here in a little bit and in fact it Says right here a look at Metro level Appreciation of home prices uh mirror These Trends so Camden New Jersey Harford Connecticut Syracuse New York Worchester Massachusetts New York New Jersey allenan Pennsylvania and Rochester uh New York are among the 10 Fastest appreciation US housing markets So far in 2024 of the top 100 track metros the top 10 also includes two California metros Anaheim California where is the home of D Disneyland and also San California About 1 hour um South of San Francisco And also running out the top 10 is Actually in Miami Florida as well According to core Logics a chief Economist she stay the following home Price has increased again this March Beyond the typical seasonal uptick Despite mortgage rates reaching this Year's High and the affordability crunch Continuing to keep many prospective Buyers on the sidelines even with the Long anticipated break in the for sale Inventory in other words uh this year Was the first time in a couple years at Least in which we saw more house for Sale compared to the previous year so We're seeing uh inventory growing which Is a positive trend for home buyers but You know because rates and home prices Still remain very much elevated it's
Still a challenging market for home Buyers so going back here even though We're seeing inventory increase uh the Surging cost of home ownership further Fueled by Rising insurance and tax Expenses some areas um that are exp Experiencing big increases of property Taxes and insurance are Florida so go Figure why we're seeing you know Inventory surging by 64% uh there right now so because these Factors this is holding potential home Buyers or home sales back as evident in The slow rise in sales compared to last Year these price pressures reflect the Overall supply and demand mismatch as Well as continued interest from Households with larger budgets so in Regards that last sentence that we're Seeing um households with larger buckets Um contributing to this interest of Houses being for sale we're seeing Exactly that we're seeing more houses That are selling for over 750,000 compared to the previous year And because of that that's one of the Reasons why we're seeing the overall us Meeting home soale price increase as Well now speaking of um a lack of Housing affordability I found this Article from the national associat rors Just posted I think it was yesterday uh This just kind of blew my mind because You look at uh qualifying income so in
Order to qualify to buy a mean pric home Today uh you would need to earn $1,464 per year in order to buy an Average price home in America it's Actually worst in Northeast $1,360 but of course the West the Highest at $155,300 compared to 1 year ago as well As the previous month compared to 12 Months ago the monthly mortgage payment Rose to $2,093 per month from the $1,943 per month an increase of 7.7% or an extra $150 extra per month Okay let's move on and talk about how Each of the states fared regarding home Price trends from 12 months ago it says On a national level home prices again Increase by 5 .3% this March no States Posted an annual decrease in home prices So every single state have posted gains Year-over-year this is much different Compared to one year ago because back in March 2023 compared to March of 2022 uh there were these states that Posted decreases overall so Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New York um Oregon Utah and Washington All saw home prices decrease Year-over-year and this is a map right Here most of the western states have Posted decreases where much of the sun Bel areas in the South have recorded big Increases in fact here the top 10 US
States that posted the biggest increases Um one year ago again March 22 compared To March uh 2023 Vermont leading the nation up by 99.9% then we have Indiana Florida Maine And South South Carolina running out the Top 10 now here's the top 10 states this Year compared to 2023 New Jersey up by 12.2% and New Jersey was actually up Only 6.7% one year ago after New Jersey was South Dakota uh New Hampshire all up by Over 10% then we have Connecticut Rhode Island Illinois Massachusetts Wisconsin Maine and Virginia so basically the vast Majority of these states are all located In the midwest or the Northeast okay Let's now have a look at the top 10 Metros to see how they Faire because of Course there's some very big differences And also share how this compares to last Year's levels so let's actually have a Look at last year's map um this again is Uh 2022 um through 2023 the biggest increase overall was at Miami Florida up by nearly 15% um we saw Gains or you know small gains in these Other metros whereas the Western metros Were actually falling compared to March Of 2022 in fact the biggest decrease was Actually in Las Vegas down by 3% Year-over-year now here's the map this
Year Miami increasing um by double Digits again up by 10.6 compared to 15% Uh but you know much of the western Metros are recording big increases right Now so for example San Diego up by 9% Um the previous year it was down by 1.7% Las Vegas down by 3% now it's up by 7.4 La is up by six last year it was Down by 1.7 also something worth noting As well we did see small gains in Chicago Washington DC Boston one year Ago now those gains have actually gone Up Chicago up by 8.2 one year ago 3% DC At 1.2 Boston at8 now it's up 6% and 7.6% in Boston so one year ago you Basically could cut the uh Us in half in Which the the areas in the west were Experiencing decreases whereas the areas In the eastern part of the us were Actually going up and now it's um kind Of more or less across the board except For Denver and Houston experiencing the Smallest gains uh right now and by the Way I'll provide a link in my video Description below if you guys want to Look at this report uh but if you Actually right click or just click on This map right here it takes you to this Right here this is the first time I've Seen this um this might be something They new they added to this report but I Found to be really interesting because Um looking at the Metras we're seeing Right now they actually have this MCI
Which I actually had to look it up uh The MC MCI analysis which stands for uh The core logic Market condition Indicators categorizes home prices in Individual markets as undervalued at Value or overvalued in in other words Home prices are um shouldn't be that High uh by comparing home prices to Their long run sustainable levels which Are supported by local market Fundamentals such as disposable income So looking at these uh 10 select us Metros they believe that the falling Metros are overvalued this is Houston The greater Houston area Atlanta Georgia Phoenix Mesa and scotdale Arizona Dallas And Plano and Irvine uh Irving Texas Riverside County and also in Minneapolis Um St Paul Minnesota as well all over Valued according to core logic does that Mean that home prices will decrease in These areas hard to say and I'll Definitely keep posted L developments on That now speaking of the markets in Which they believe home prices will Decrease the most over the next 12 Months are these five metros so pal Bay Melbourne um Florida a very high Probability that home prices will Decrease over the next 12 months and by The way all these metros is also a very High probability as well number two the Greater Atlanta Georgia area Spokane Washington uh Spokane Washington has
Been the top five for quite some time uh I've been making this video for you guys For a couple years um spoken Washington Has been in the this uh top five for a Long time anyways number four uh Daytona Beach of Florida and then rounding out The top five uh Greenville Anderson South Carolina and with that said please Comment below your biggest takeaways From today's video if you guys got any Value out of today's video whatsoever Then please hit the like button I great Appreciate that of course I appreciate You guys so much for supporting my YouTube channel hope you guys have an Awesome day and look forward to seeing You on the next video He [Music] [Music]
