Hey welcome back core logic just Downgraded their latest housing market Forecast over the next 12 months this Was just announced actually today at the Time I filming this video I didn't Realize that um I want to share what Their forecast is and I'm also going to Share what their forecast was one year Ago to see if they were accurate or not I'm also going to share what's happening Right now regarding home prices at a National level but also for 10 major US Metros on top of that stay tuned towards The end of this video going to talk About the Metros in which they believe Home prices will decrease the most over The next 12 months I have a lot to share In today's video please like And Subscribe and I'll and let's begin Today's video so let's talk about what Happened um over the previous 12 months So it says home prices Nationwide Increase year viye by 4.3% in July this year compared to July Of 2023 also home prices decrease by 0.1% uh this July compared to June so Month-to month we're down by .01% yet prices increased by 4.3% over the past 12 months something That caught my attention though Regarding this uh decrease in prices Down by 0.1% this is actually slightly cooler
Than the long run average on average Home prices tend to increase from June Through July each and every year so more On that here in a little bit before I Share the latest housing market forecast Over the next 12 months here's a Forecast posted one year ago back in September of 2023 back then they're forecasting for Home prices to increase by 3.5% from July 2023 through July of 2024 And again going back to the report Posted today again we saw increase of 4.3% so not too far off the forecast of Gain of 3.5% let's have a look at their latest Forecast because over the next 12 months Through July of 2025 they're calling for Home prices to increase by 2.2% this is quite a bit different Compared to the previous 12 months again From uh July last year through July this Year we saw a gain of 4.3 month 4.3% whereas this forecast over the next 12 months is only an increase of 2.2% so so basically they're calling for Um half the gains um over the next 12 Months compared to the previous year This is what their Chief Economist had To say regarding this it says home price Growth moderates as sales remain slow Monthly home price growth is starting to Slip and annual forecast are showing Smaller anticipated gains in other words
This deceleration home pric is still Increasing but I'm increasing at a Slower clip much of this sluggishness Can be attributed to the high mortgage Rate environment that are continuing to Challenge the housing market and of Course home buyers as well they have High home prices and of course s Elevated rates as well as buyers remain Cautious sales remain low so for example Based on my own analysis of the National Associat rers Data we're basically on Track to have slightly fewer home sales Of existing houses this year compared to Last year this is very much noteworthy Because back in 2023 for the year as a Whole we had a 28-year low in closed Home sales so basically so far this year We're on track to have fewer home sales Last year and last year we were Basically at a three decade low also Pending home sales measured by the National Association rors um they have What's called their Penning home sale Index an index which measures uh the Amount of people getting the offers Accepted or Penning home sales that Decreased to a new all-time record low Uh for that report that was just posted About a couple uh weeks ago so big Picture yes it's true that we have a Lack of home sales historically speaking Basically on track to have a three Decade low on top of that a future
Indication of close home sales that's Pening home sales uh decreased to a new Alltime record low so uh it actually Could get a little bit worse here next Couple of months cor logic also said This as well however the highly Anticipated rate cuts from the FED uh This fall which actually is uh scheduled For September 8 18th about one week from U making this video so the those rate Cuts from the FED may help improve Consumer purchase sediment for the Housing market I emphasize sediment Because we're not talking about rates do Not expect that rates will decrease once A Fed starts cutting rates because the Rates we're seeing today when when I Meaning rates I'm talking about mortgage Rates the rates we' seen today have Already taken into account future rate Cuts by the Fed so I think it's a very Clever them to use sediment and of Course not rates so maybe people will be More um uh confident about buying houses Potentially if their sediment increases Once they see the FED starts cutting Rates uh in about one week from now and By the way I'll share some new insights Regarding some expectations or forecasts Uh for recuts forther remain of the year Um some changes um that have occurred Over the past one month any case it says Housing demand contined to buckle under The under the pressure of high rates and
Unaffordable home prices leading to a Considerable slowing of home price gains During the summer months July's prices Were essentially flat from the month Before again a decrease of U 0.1% and that was notably cooler than The average gain of 0.4% that's recorded from June through July um prior to the pandemic especially During the pandemic years so Historically speaking home prices tend To increase by by 4% from June through July yet this year it was relatively Flat down by .01% and they're basically saying here This is from the pressure of elevated Rates and of course unaffordable home Prices as well you know please leave me A com below regarding that do you guys Think the housing market is unaffordable Due to rates Andor home prices please me A comment below anyways it says the Question for home prices going forward Is whether the the upcoming rate cut by The fed and the expect continuation of Falling mortgage rates will be Sufficient to motivate potential buyers Who may start to fear of a cooling labor Market and continued uncertainty of a Soft Landing for a recession on top of That we have the anticipation about the Presidential election as well we're just Causing some people to kind of put their Plans on hold to buy a house and while
Lower mortgage rates are a boost to Housing affordability and are likely to Have to help buyer demand the usual fall Housing market slowdown is upon us and Is likely to contain or minimize any Significant surge in activity so because We have seasonality of our housing Market where housing market tends to Cool off especially during the holidays And the winter months and on top of that We have uh elevated rates and of course Elevated prices as well this is likely Going to contain any increase in um home Prices and sales for the remainder of The year now having said that I want to Share this with you guys this is According to the mortgage News Daily on What day is it Tuesday uh the average uh Daily rate for 30-year fix according to Them is at 6.22% that's a three basis point rate Decrease compared to uh Monday also for FHA and VA loans that's around 5.7% so looking at the one-year chart Looking at the 3year fix one year ago we Were at 7.22% so rates are about 1% Point lower Or about 100 basis points lower compared To one year ago um also were much lower Than the 8% rates we saw back in mid October last year so zooming now going Back to approximately April last year at 6.22% that's the lowest daily rates We've had going all the way back until
Thursday April 6 2023 when the average daily rate back Then was at 6.18% so average rates right now are More or less at a 1 and2 year low we'll Have to see if that improves um home Sales in the coming months now let's Talk about the expectations for the FED Ruts or Fed rate cuts and their next Meeting is actually scheduled in one Week from now which is scheduled for September 18th so the average uh not the Average the federal fence rate excuse me Is at 5.5 0% right now so the Treet is Forecasting by a 69% probability they're We're going the FED is going to cut Rates by 25 basis points down to 5.25% this is much different compared to Uh one month ago because one month ago The street was basically split between The FED cutting rates by 25 basis points At a 49% probability and cutting rates By 50 basis points a 51% probability so Right now the fed or the FED watch tool Here which is the uh CME F fed watch Tool is calling for the uh fed to cut Rates by only 25 basis points in about 1 Week's time now it's going to be a Little different though November 7th This is all going to you know change Based on incoming data by the way so There's a 53.2% chance that the fed's Going to cut rates down to 4.75% so therefore If the Fed Cuts rates
Down to 5.25% in September uh they're basically Calling for a 50 basis point rap Increase by a 53% chance then to end the Year uh December 18th uh they're calling For the FED to cut rates Again by 50 Basis points uh down to 4.25% in my personal opinion you know Let me leave me a comment below your Thoughts regarding this I think that a 25 basis point rate decrease followed by Two consecutive 50 basic Point rate Cuts Is actually more aggressive than I think They're actually going to do unless the Labor market you know slows down Considerably which will cause a fed to Cut rates more than anticipated but what Do you guys think about that I just Think that 50 basis point rate decreases To consecutive meetings is a little bit More aggressive than I think the FED is Actually going to do but again it's all Going to depend on incoming inflation um Data but especially regarding the labor Market as well let's also talk about Some things that really could impact uh Mortgage rates this week because I'm Making this video on Tuesday but on Wednesday we have the CPI or the Consumer Price Index that will be posted At 5:30 a.m. Pacific Standard time I'm Posting this video that you're watching At 6:30 a.m. so um stay tuned for that Because that's going to be a really big
Um Market mover potentially um also on Thursday we have the weekly uh jobless Claims but also more importantly the PPI Or the producer price index so the P Stands for producer and the C for the CPI stands for consumers what price Uh of everyday consumers are paying That's a CPI the PPI is based what based On the increases in prices that Producers are paying So based on these Two reports we could see some very big Volatility uh in rates this week all Right let's get back to coric forecast Uh let's talk about the gains in home Prices for each of the 50 states and This is from uh July last year compared To July this year so again on a national Level um home prices Rose by 4.3% % year Of a year and on top of that no States Posted a decrease in prices compared to 12 months ago uh Texas is actually very Close so this means less than 1% this Means that home prices increase in the Range of. 1% to .9% in Texas also we Have um gains in the range of 1 to 3% in Florida uh Louisiana Utah Colorado Oregon Etc in Contrast we saw big gains in Rhode Island up by 10 . 6% New Jersey up by 9.7 Connecticut's up by 8.3 South Dakota Up by 8.1 and Illinois is up by 7.5% also in California where I live and Work as a real estate agent here with my Team we we're seeing gains in the range
Of 3 to 5% here's something I found to Be interesting here is the map posted One year ago this is a change in prices From July 2022 compared to July of 2023 And I remember making these videos one Year ago saying that you if you Basically kind of split the US in half The western states are posting the Biggest decreases in prices whereas much Of the um the Eastern region especially The Northeast are experiencing gains in Home prices in fact Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada Oregon Texas Utah Washington and Wyoming all Saw home prices decrease compared to the Previous year much different compared to The the map we're seeing this year we're Seeing strong gains in much of the west But especially in the Midwest and the Northeast this can also be seen by 10 Major US Metras as well look at the map Posted one year ago back in September uh Last year we saw huge gains in Miami up By 9% but much of the West Was down San Diego was up by 1.3 but Los Angeles down By 8% Vegas down by 5% Phoenix down by Four Denver down by 1 uh but Chicago and Washington but especially Miami was up Greatly here is the map right now though Big gains in San Diego up by 6.2 Denver Barely squeaked out a gain up by 1.4 and Miami led the nation once again up by 9% Um quite a bit oh yeah it's on par with Last year also a gain of 9% as well also
Las Vegas has fully recovered up by 7% La up by four Phoenix also up by 3.5 5% Chicago Washington DC and also Boston um Are seeing gains over 5% as well very Interesting how the house market even Though it does kind of move very slowly How the changes um from one year ago is So much different compared to what we're Seeing uh today now speaking of that Here are the uh top five markets in Which coric believes that home prices Will decrease the most over the next Next uh 12 months uh this is kind of Some new um cities I've been seeing here So three these Market markets are Actually located in Florida so number One Gainesville Florida number two Palm Bay Milbourne Florida then we have Atlanta Georgia Lakeland Winter Haven Florida and then rounding out the top Five Ogden clear field Utah these by the Way all have a quote unquote very high Probability of home prices decreasing Over the next 12 months going through July next year with that said please Comment below your biggest takeaways From today's video also if you guys want A real estate agent referral please Check out my website which is realate TEF finder.com or email me directly at Jasonjason walter.com um we'd love to Connect you with a great real agent in Your neck of the woods and with that Said I appreciate you guys so much for
Watching today's video please like And Subscribe and we'll see you in the next Video have an amazing day [Music] [Music]
