Mark let's talk about the market start The clock then and think about where we Are on commodities we've seen uh goldman Sachs over recent days warning that you Know now we've seen moves on swift Perhaps commodities could even be in the Fray and lots of people writing about Whether gas could be used as a tool of Retaliation by russia what are we seeing Then in terms of that commodities space Certainly so much volatility because Even though oil prices are up two Percent today we're still only around 100 Yes i think that it's very important to Take away that there's a lot of Volatility but the price action oil Isn't overly bullish now that said There's a lot of uncertainty in this Whole situation and the most direct Transmission of the russia invasion on Markets uh beyond the humanitarian issue The most direct transmission on markets Is via commodities and there's a lot of Uncertainty there as you say commodities Themselves could still be used as a Weaponized kind of in this conflict so It's hard to have any strong views the Underlying trend was very clearly Bullish there were those like myself who A couple of weeks earlier thought that We already might be peeking out in Commodities and that was wrong we Clearly went a lot higher we are still
Underlying bid there in markets i don't Think you want to fight the kind of Trend in commodities at the moment or Anytime soon until we get more clarity But it is interesting that the price Action hasn't been particularly bullish Oil prices are still where they were a Week ago Okay and if we do get releases from Strategic petroleum reserves do they as They often do in the past not change the Fundamentals not move prices long term But add to that volatility in the short Term I think that's right i think that They're more of a signaling effect and They're showing that people you know uh Governments are willing to act what Would be interesting this time if there Was much more coordinating action not Just the us if china acted as well so i Think there's a chance for a strong Signal here um but overall until we get Certainty what's going to happen with Russian oil in the weeks ahead there the World needs russia's oil supplier They're one of the most uh important Suppliers of oil in the world they have A lot of exports that will just be too Much of a deficit for the world to make Up opec cannot fill that gap and the u.s Could not fill that gap in the short Term either so until we have clarity That russian oil will continue to be
Delivered there will be an underlying Bid to this market And only so much russian and iranian oil That that some that the china for Example can buy and thinking of china Pmi is picking up in february is that Any kind of relief for markets the fact That maybe policy is delivering Pro-growth policy delivering is it all Even that kind of measure of the Market's still too backward looking for Us right now I think it is very positive i think it's Showing that the china growth outlook is Definitely looking a little bit more Positive they're starting to be an Impact from their credit transmission The worry about the covet zero policies Have not been as drastic on the consumer It is not a super strong growth story There but it is positive all those pmis Not only beat expectations but they came In in expansion territory and i do think That in a world that has a slowing Growth story the chinese growth story is The one that is actually better than the Pessimistic narrative and that's where The market opportunities are for the Year ahead Yeah really interesting to hear stephen Bird talking about uh dollar hegemony And where that goes and trading in Chinese currency instead in the renminbi We'll certainly follow that uh mark
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