In today's video I want to provide an Update regarding what's happening right Now in the California housing market uh This is because the California Association Realtors just announced on Friday a brand new report for the month Of October regarding home sales home Prices inventory and much much more this Is a big update I have for you guys uh For the California housing market so Here's a snapshot regarding sales uh Prices and also inventory levels and by The way this is part one of my two-part Video series I make each and every month Regarding the California real estate Market in part two I'll provide some Context about what's happening right now At the regional level in California and Also what's happening at the countywide Level as well today's video is a general Overview about what's happening right Now Statewide so home sales are down 11.9% year-over-year and Downy whopping 27% uh year-to date so far this year uh This uh 11.9% decrease marks the 28th Consecutive year decline in home sales Here in California um home prices um Stay tuned here in just a little bit Because I have a lot of information to Share regarding the trends we're seeing Right now uh for home prices compared to Years past going back to 20110 so the Median sold price this by the way is Only looking at existing so excluding
Brand new home construction and also Only looking at single family detached Houses only so excluding condos and Multif family units so when looking at Those home sold prices for the month of October we're at just over 84,000 up by 5.3% year-over-year But one thing they don't mention here is That prices have been falling for the Past two months in a row and again I Have a lot to share regarding some other Trends as well uh meanwhile the month Supply is at 2.7 months uh that's down By about 133% year-over-year dayon Market is at 20 days and that's down by Nearly 30% year-over-year so houses Selling faster right now compared to October of 2022 okay let's talk about sales so home Sales are more or less at a 16year low Excluding the onset of of of covid here Back in April and uh May of 2020 can't Believe that was four years ago anyways You can see here the level of home sales Uh this by the way is seasonally Adjusted and also it's annualized as Well uh at 241,000 more or less the Lowest level since the year of 2008 also down by 12% year year by small Increase compared to September uh in Regards to the the uh changes in home Sales by each of these price segments Here um something I found to be just
Kind of interesting to say the least is That um home sales for over $1 million Let's just say 1 million to uh $2 Million are up by 3% compared to October Of 2022 whereas we saw a giant increase Of 11% for houses that sold for over $2 Million compared to October last year Now something keep in mind is that Overall home sales uh especially the Luxury Market fell greatly at this time Last year so that could be one reason Why we're up by 11% right now in Contrast for home sales that sold in the Range of 300 to 399,000 that decreased By 177% a lack of more affordable houses That are being sold or being listed for Sale right now uh due to the fact that Home prices have increased so much um Something else regarding that is that One year ago the uh the share of houses That sold in the range of zero please Leave me a comment below if you if you Guys got a house for z or free um but Anyways for less than $500,000 uh that was at 28% of all close Home sales in October of last year Versus only 26% this year also for houses sold for Over $1 million uh 33% of all close home Sales are over for $1 million so three Of every 10 houses that sold this October uh sold for over $1 million Whereas last year it was only at 29% so that was close home sales let's
Have a look at pending home sales a Measure of contracts being signed Between buyers and sellers that fell by 7.8% year-over-year it has been down on A annual basis here ever since more or Less May of 2021 okay let's talk about the fun stuff Stuff here home prices here because I Have a lot to share here so the California Association RoR says California's meeting home so price Increases modestly for the fourth month In a row I would add an asterisk here on A year year basis this title implies That home prices are still increasing However on a month-to-month basis they Have been decreasing which is seasonal Anyways I just kind of want to point That out because when I read that it Appear that home prices are still Increasing but only increasing compared To the previous year uh right now the Median sold price is at $840,000 Down 4% compared to one month ago but up By 5.3% year over year like I mentioned I have a lot to share so let's kind of Get nerdy here here's my nerdy Excel Spreadsheet um the figures I pulled from Uh the California association rors Website is only the um home sale price And also the month everything else is um Something I added to provide some Context what's happening right now and Again a friendly reminder here this is
Only looking at existing single family Detached houses only so the meeting sold Price at um $840,000 right now again up By 5.3% from one year ago when U home Prices were at $798,000 um also compared To last month we're down by 4% Like I mentioned here down for the Previous two months in a row which again Is seasonal but I have a lot more to Share regarding that though so let's First talk about this uh increase of 5.3% on a year- of- year basis this Marks the fourth consecutive year- of- Year increase um and also this is after We had eight consecutive months of Decreases on a year-year basis that was From November last year through June This year uh this is also the highest um Year your increase since May of 2022 uh right now at 5.3% the highest level since uh last May Which by the way that was when we had All-time record highs for home prices at That time it was up by 99.2% but this gain of 5.3% right now is The biggest gains since then Additionally as a note right here this Gain um this October is um lower than Historical long run averages but more or Less in line with 2018 as well as 2019 so let's talk about that so the Average October year-year change uh Going back to the year of 2010 is an
Increase of 88.3% versus this year a gain of 5.3% so the yearly gains is not as great Compared to Long Run averages now here's A look at home price changes um from October through October over the past Several years here so the change in in The median sold price in October 2019 Through 2020 was a giant increase of 17.5% obviously much greater than the 5.3% we saw this year and that of course Was because we had a lot of demand due To rates decreasing greatly back in 2020 Right any case looking at uh preco Levels this is October 18 through October 2019 an increase of 5.8% uh slightly higher than the gain of 5.3% this year in 2017 through 18 an Increase of 4.7% slightly below what we're seeing Right now and also just for fun I looked At the Medan so price from October 2008 Through October 2009 a decrease of 3.2% so big picture here uh the gains We're seeing right now an increase of 5 .3% is actually not as great compared to The long run average but more or less in Line with uh pre uh Co levels in 2018 And 2019 now let's look at um home sold Prices uh compared to one month ago Because again it decreased by 0.4% this marks the second consecutive Month of monthly
Decreases um this is a seasonal decrease Is why I would say because home prices Over tend a decrease because the long Run average this is the average October I should say the average September Through October uh change going back to 2010 is a decrease of 1.4% so this decrease of 0 4% is not as Bad as a long run average um also According to the California Association Rors the average over the past 44 years Is a decrease of 1 5% so we're not Seeing a a as big of a decrease this October compared to September compared To historical averages also for Comparison sake uh this decline of0 4% Is not as bad as what we saw last October last October we saw a decrease Of 2.3% compared to September of 2022 so this implies the market was Falling um faster at this time last year Compared to to this year uh but wait There's more because I want to share the Uh correction we had last year and how Home prices have changed this year so Look at this the record high that was Set back in May of 2022 through the trough which was this February that by the way was a 2-year Low uh the laot this is more or less Last year's correction was a decrease of 18% look at this though um from ever Since then I should say ever since
February this year home price prices Have increased by 14% that again is the increase in prices From February this year through October This year an increase of 14% therefore the decrease from the Record high that was set last May is Only down by 6% uh this is of course Much less than the 18% correction we saw Last year because home prices have Increased by 14% everever since February This year so it's pretty wild to see That we're only down by uh 6% compared To the all-time record highs uh given The fact that rates are very close to 8% Right now multi decade um highs Regarding rates at least for October of Course rates over the past week have Decreased by about 60 basis points any Case looking at um prices compared to Three years ago were up by 18% that's a Game we saw from October 2020 through October this year an increase of 18% all right let's get back to to this Slideshow from the California Association Realtors and by the way hope You guys appreciate that additional Analysis regarding home prices because That uh tends to take me a couple hours To make and so um anyways let's just Move on let's talk about condos so Condos uh the median so price is at $660,000 that's up from 620,000 one year Ago so pric is up compared
To last year's levels um the price per Square foot something I don't put a Whole lot of weight on if you guys are Curious It's At $421 is a price per square foot uh this October up from last month and up by 6% From one year ago meanwhile the average Sale price to final list price ratio is At 100.0% so on average this October for The house that did sold um they sold for The sell's final list price that has Been paid at 100% for a couple of months Now um not a lot of change there uh much Different compared to the huge decrease We saw a last year when the we got down To about 96% so houses selling for about 4% below Asking now they're selling for the Asking price on average here's also a Look at the share of houses that sold Above the sell's asking price that's at 42.1% this October uh much higher Compared to the 26% we saw one year ago But still below the uh Peak that was set Back in April of 2022 at 72.9% something also worth mentioning Here is that the share has been Decreasing but at 42.1% it's still much higher compared to Uh preco levels uh because in 2017 Through 2019 that share did not surpass 40% now we're at 42% here's also a look
At um mortgage rates as well so for the Month of October the average according To Freddy Mack is at 7. 62% one year ago it was at 6.90% now something keep in mind though Is that even though rates have increased Um by about what 70 basis points Compared to uh last October U more Recently rates have been decreasing so Take a look at this right here so this October at 7.62% a sharp rise from September at 7.20% this by the way is on our good Uncle Fred's website and the source here Is Fredy Mack so as they mentioned rates Have been decreasing so overall for the Month of November so far we're at 7.57% and also Daily rates um on Friday As well as on Thursday according to the Um mortgage News Daily is around 7.4% in any case when looking at this Chart here looking at the growth growth Rate of housing payments that's an Increase of 13.1% this is due to of course home Prices rising and of course due to uh Interest rates also increasing as well Because prices uh increase by 5.3% uh versus we saw a huge increase in Rates in October compared to the Previous month let's also have a look at Inventory levels because the uh again The month supply right now is at 2.7 Months uh still at very low levels uh
But of course not as low as the levels We saw in 2021 but of course much lower Than the Peak at around what 16 months That we saw back in 2007 and one year ago we were at 3.1 Months now here's something that's very Important I want to share with you guys Because uh it says here active listings Struggle to grow due to this lockin Effect this is true because a lot of People have very low rates however Though based on my analysis right here Um inventory levels have been increasing Now for seven consecutive months um this Is highly unusual because inventory Levels tend to peak in the summer months Um this is um something else you guys Should be aware of as well is that one Would imply here that just looking at This number here or the this figure here Seeing that inventory Rising for seven Consecutive months is due to a sharp Increase in new listings the um irony Here is that new listings are still Decreasing because the rise here Inventory levels is not duee to an Increase of people listing their houses For sale it's really due to the fact That home buying demand is decreasing And therefore we're seeing uh fewer Contracts being signed between buyers And sellers fewer home sales and of Course houses taking longer to sell Those are all reasons why inventory
Levels are still Rising right now which Again is highly unusual so for example Back in 2018 as well as 2019 inventory levels Peaked in the summer months now it's October still increasing right now now If you guys are looking for a real Estate market crash here in California I I do want to point this out because last Year inventory absolutely skyrocketed in The first you know first half of the Year whereas this year we are seeing a Small increase each and every month so This really shocked the housing market Back in 2022 when inventory levels just You know shot up this year uh we're Still increasing And and also uh increasing uh or the Peak is actually later than last year's Levels we're not seeing this sharp rise Of inventory which caused home prices to Fall by 18% last year so U that's this Is something to closely follow in the Months ahead here but I would expect That once we once we get uh November's Numbers we should see inventory levels Uh fall compared to October it would be Highly highly unusual if inventory uh Keeps rising in November and December of Course I'll definitely keep you post it And speaking of uh a decrease of new Listings new listings have now decreased For 16 consecutive months on a year-year Basis now it's down by
6.4% year-over-year as you can see right There uh so for the month of October There was just over 177,000 um new Houses that got listed for sale here in California and that's um down compared To last year at 18,200 but far less than uh pre pandemic Levels uh so for example 2019 Approximately 23,000 new listings in October and also October 2018 just under 27,000 so we're down 6.4% compared to last October but Downy Whopping 26% from October 2019 and dowy whopping 36% from October of 2018 so big picture Here despite new listings uh falling Here uh inventory has now increase for The past s months in a row again not due To an increase of new listings uh more Or less due to a a huge pullback and Home buying demand let's talk about uh Market competiveness so dayson Market is At 20 days right now uh last year at This time it was at 28 days as you can See right here we're seeing a seasonal Increase of da in the market right now Even though we're below levels in 2022 additionally let's have a look at The share of price drops in California For October because that's at 37.4% it has been increasing steadily This year but we're still well below Last year's levels when the share price Drops peaked at very close to 50% and
With that said please comment below your Biggest takeaways from today's video Also if you guys got any value out of This video uh whatsoever then please Like button appr appreciate that and of Course I appreciate you hope you guys Have an awesome day and look forward to Seeing you on the next [Music] [Music] Video
