And welcome back I have some eye-opening Trends I want to share with you guys Today because Redfin is reporting today Which is the 2nd of March that home sold Prices in the US are in the negative so Home prices down compared to one year Ago for the first time going back to 2012 and on top of that mortgage rates Continue to Surge so I have a lot to Share in today's video uh to say the Least so let's go ahead and Dive Right In and of course if you guys aren't Subscribed just yet I invite you to do So I post frequent housing market Updates so you guys can make a more Informed decision about whether you Should be buying or selling a house I Share data Straight From the Source so Anyways I mean this is mind-blowing all Right take a look at this this is a Report from Redfin that was just posted On the 2nd of March which is today hope You guys appreciate these timely updates Um anyways I just can't get over the Fact that home sold prices are negative Already so the median U.S home sold Price decreased by 0.6 percent on a year Of your basis marking the first annual Drop since 2012. this Milestone comes as a daily Average mortgage rates hit 7.1 percent Dampening home buyer demand and of Course uh decreasing housing Affordability so take a look at this let
Me just refresh this because the 10 year Has been surging today an increase of Seven basis points and has surpassed Four percent for the first time going Back to November last year when the Yield was about 4.15 percent now it's Just over four percent of course I Mentioned that because that's tied Directly to mortgage rates which take a Look at this according to Investopedia.com as of today rates are At 7.16 for average 30-year fixed for People with exceptional credit as well Also look at this according to the mercy Use daily which I actually just Announced on the channel this morning on The second here average 30-year fix is At 7.10 Again for people with exceptional credit FHA and VA is around 6.5 so again Average rates right now at 7.10 one year Ago it was only 4.08 that's a 302 basis Point increase or a 3.02 percent Point Uh increase compared to 12 months ago Going from uh 4.08 to about 7.10 so at 7.1 percent right now this is actually The highest rates going back to November Of 2022 when rates are about 7.22 so when looking at rates um Compared to before that does it say Before October and November last year The last time rates were above seven
Percent was way back in 2000 2002 so Excluding today as well as October and November last year the last time the Rates were this low was way back in 2002 Based on data from Freddie Mac which by The way the mortgage News Daily only Goes back to when was this back in 2009. also in going back one month ago When rates are at 5.99 this means that Average rates today have increased by About 1.1 percent points over the last One month alone this equates to a 11 Decrease in buyer's purchasing power so Home buyers looking to buy a house right Now are going to qualify for about 10 Percent below what they did one month Ago which is absolutely insane also Here's the true impacts as well Regarding uh for people looking to buy a House right now versus just one month Ago and actually just shared this Example with you guys yesterday in Yesterday's video uh and that was based On rates going from 5.99 to 6.94 percent Said what was yesterday's rate on the 1st of March but because rates have Increased to 7.1 percent today which by The way that was an increase of how many Business points 16 basis points and one Single day look at this I'll share the Exact same example I shared in Yesterday's video but looking at rates Today at 7.1 percent so for someone Looking to buy a 450 000 home
Putting five percent down at 5.99 Percent which was on February 2nd uh This year uh your average monthly Housing payment of principal and Interest would be 2 560 dollars per Month 2 560. fast forward to right now 450 five Percent down at uh 7.10 your new housing Payment will be two thousand eight Hundred and seventy three dollars per Month that equates to an increase of Three hundred and thirteen dollars more Per month compared to just 30 days ago Also another way to look at this is that This is an increase of 46 dollars more Per month to buy that same house Compared to yesterday's rates at six Point nine four percent so in other Words because rates increase from six Point nine four percent to seven point One zero percent in one single day That's an increase of 46 dollars more Per month on top of the that here's Another way to look at this as well Because when looking at rates at 5.9 Compared to 7.1 at 5.9 if you're going To keep that loan for 30 years the total Amount of interest paid over the life Alone which of course is 30 years is 494 000 at 5.9 at 7.1 though your total Interest paid over the life alone would Be six hundred and six thousand dollars That equates to an increase of one Hundred and twelve thousand dollars more
In interest paid over the life alone Compared to just 30 days ago I mean how Mind-blowing is that this giant increase In rates if it sustains these levels is Likely to decrease home buying demand Further in the weeks and months ahead But of course data can change uh and so We'll have to I'll definitely keep you Posted of course so going back to Redfin's report right here it says the Typical U.S homes sold for 350 246 dollars during the four race ended February 26 down by 0.6 percent on a Year of your basis marking the first Time prices have dropped since February Of 2012. and by the way except for the Prior four-week period which was posted Last week Redfin actually revised their home sold Price for a drop of 0.3 percent for the Four weeks ended February 19th and by The way in that report which is posted One week ago at that time they posted That home sold prices increased by 0.1 Percent uh from a year ago now they have Actually revised that down to point Three percent uh compared to 12 months Ago now here's something that a Redfin Uh had a good point on and this actually Kind of coincides with my example Regarding this giant increase in rates Which is causing a lack of housing Affordability Redfin States here but That doesn't mean that houses are more
Affordable given the fact that home sold Prices are down by uh point six percent Compared to one year ago the typical Monthly mortgage payment for today's Home buyer is at a record high of 2 520 Due to elevated mortgage rates this Could lead to a prolonged winter for the Housing market meanwhile as I mentioned In my previous video mortgage purchase Applications according to the MBA fell To the lowest levels since 1995. a 28-year low for the amount of People submitting applications for Home Loans to buy houses which they state Right here down 44 compared to one year Ago however redfin's home buyer demand Index which of course is a measure Request and of home tours and other home Buying services from Redfin agents hit Its highest level since September last Year however it's still down by 24 from A year earlier now here are some key Healthy Market takeaways for the 400 Plus U.S metros that Redfin tracks for The Forex ended February 26 this year Again the meeting home sole price a Decrease to 350 246 dollars down point six percent from One year ago the first decline on record Redfin's monthly data set which goes Back through 2012 shows the last time That home prices decrease on an Annualized basis are not analyzed on an Annual basis was February 2012 when they
Decreased by 1.5 percent meanwhile the Median sold price a decrease compared to 12 months ago and roughly half of the 50 Large largest metros so 24 of the 50 Most populous metros are recording Decreases in the home sold prices Compared to one year ago the biggest Drops were in the pandemic home buying Hot spots as well as Northern California So for example in Austin Texas they're Seen in 11 decrease in their home sold Prices compared to 12 months ago so take A look at this this is for Austin Texas Which by the way Redfin has not updated Their data center at that time this Video for February 26th but I do have Data for the forest ended February 19th So as of then home sold prices were down By 10 percent going from uh 448 000 from The highest set in May last year at 574 Thousand dollars so by my dumb math That's a 22 decrease in home prices in Austin Texas from the highs seen in May Of 2 2022 a decrease of 22 percent in The median sold price in Austin Texas I Mentioned that because when talking About year-over changes that actually Includes this giant run up in home Prices for example in Austin Texas I'm From uh what more or less of February All the way until May last year so when Talking about year-over changes it Really doesn't tell us the full story Because as you guys can see right here
Home prices have been decreasing big Time ever since May and June of last Year in contrast when talking about your VR changes it actually includes this run Up in home prices that we saw in February all the way until May in any Case getting back to redfin's report Right here Austin Texas led the nation With the biggest decrease compared to 12 Months ago those Fall by San Jose California which of course is just south Of San Francisco down by 10.9 percent Oakland California down by 10.4 percent Uh Oakland was actually in the number One spot for quite some time for several Weeks now it's in 3 Spot Sacramento down By seven point seven percent in Phoenix Arizona down by 7.3 percent on top of That that's the biggest sales drop on Record for each of those metros except For San Jose California in contrast sale Prices increase the most in West Palm Beach Florida a gain of 15 Milwaukee Wisconsin 13.2 percent Columbus Ohio an Increase of 9.5 percent Miami Florida Gaining by 9.1 percent and Fort Lauderdale Florida an increase of 7.8 Percent one thing I do want to mention Regarding home prices in the US is that We're not going to see this giant run up In prices like we saw in 2022 which is One reason why I've been telling you Guys that we're going to be seeing Negative price growth very very soon and
Of course Redfin posts today that we saw Negative growth so look at this a chart Right here so the blue line is 2023. the Black line is 2022. For all Redfin metros here so starting In February last year home prices Absolutely skyrocketed until we hit All-time record highs more or less in May and June of last year this year of Course we're not going to see that Because last year a lot of people were Trying to buy houses before rates Increased again at this time last year Rates were out four percent and again Right now rates are actually over seven Percent therefore we're not going to see Us run up in home prices like we saw Last year if prices remain flat I'm not Going to say it's going to happen but if Prices were remain flat all the way Until June and may this year we're Actually going to be down about 10 to 11 In the median sole price in the US by May and June this year of course if home Prices decrease through this spring Month which would be absolutely insane If that happens we're gonna see double Digit decreases by June and may this Year time will tell and I'll definitely Keep you posted with the latest Developments Redfin is also reporting That the monthly mortgage payment on the Median asking price home this is based On your housing payment based on asking
Prices today on the national level here Was 2 520 at the six point six five Percent mortgage rate based on a weekly Survey from Freddie Mac of course this Is going to look a lot higher given the Fact that rates are actually over seven Percent but at six point six five Percent this is an all-time record high Meanwhile pending home sales were down 15 percent year over year the smallest Decrease since July last year on top of That look at this pending home sales Fell and every single one of the 50 most Populous us metros they actually felt The most in Las Vegas Nevada on a Decrease of 52 or 55.2 percent Austin Texas pending home sales fell by 49.5 compared to 12 months ago Portland Oregon decreased about 47 percent Riverside California down 45 percent and Nashville Tennessee a decrease of 45.3 Percent additionally we're still seeing This lock-in effect amongst current Homeowners who do not want to give up Their historically low rates and that's Where we're seeing new listings decrease On a year-of-year basis so new listings Fell 20.3 percent year over year the Biggest decline in three months new Listings decreased in every single one Of the 50 most populous us metros where The biggest declines in Oakland California down by 45 percent Fall by Sacramento Seattle San Jose California
As well as Portland Oregon Also Regarding active placings which of Course is the number of houses of for Sale I was down 19.6 percent on a Year-of-year basis the smallest increase In more than two months for whatever Reason Redfin is only a important Increase of 19.6 percent but we're Looking at data from realtor.com as well As altosresearch.com the reporting Increases of about 70 percent compared To 12 months ago redfins already poured An increase of 19.6 percent Redfin is Also reporting that the month supply Which of course is a measure of the Balance between buyers and sellers right Now is at 3.5 months down from 4.4 Months from one month ago but still up From 2.1 months from a year ago Additionally 45 percent of houses that Went under contract had an accepted Offer within the first two weeks of the House being listed for sale that's the Highest level since June of last year But still down from 53 percent from a Year earlier days on the market also Increased to 50 days that's up from 31 Days from 12 months ago but up greatly From the all-time record low that was Set last May when days on the market was Only 18 days by the way this is a Measure of when a house gets listed for Sale to when they accept an offer and The house eventually closes or finalizes
Here so it's taking approximately 50 Days from a house being listed for sale To when they accept an offer on average In the US and that's up greatly from the All-time record lows of only 18 days That was set last may also have a look At this this is pretty wild only 22 Percent of houses that sold sold above The seller's final list price in Contrast this means that approximately 78 of the houses that sold during this Time frame here sold at or below the Seller's asking price and again a Friendly reminder when talking about any Stats that have to do with houses that Actually close such as days in the Market percent of houses that sold over Asking price and of course the sale Price to list price ratio and of course The median sold price that's again a Lagging indicator of what a housing Market was like one to two months ago When the home seller accept an offer From home buyer and I mentioned that Because mortgage rates have been surging Over the past 30 days that's likely to Be in impacted these lagging indicators In the next one to two months from now In other words these stats I'm sharing In today's video could get a lot worse If mortgage rates stay above these high Levels right now above seven percent for Example and speaking of that the average Sale price to final list price ratio was
At 98 meaning houses sold for about two Percent below the seller's final asking Price uh this is actually the highest Levels in two months but down from 100.6 Percent from a year earlier this of Course means that one year ago houses on Average were selling for 0.6 percent Over the seller's final list price now They're selling for about two percent Below so what's your biggest takeaway From today's video please comment below Also if you guys got any values video Whatsoever then please like button I Really appreciate that of course I Appreciate you hope you guys have an Awesome day and I look forward to seeing You on the next video [Music] [Music] Thank you Foreign
