We've never seen so much money come into The space so fast these are Unprecedented times however I do believe This is the last great cycle will'll Ever have today I sit down with crypto Analyst James of invest answers I Believe there's a good chance we will Exceed the returns of last cycle because The last cycle was manipulated to talk The potential of the crypto Market in 20124 this time everything is different This is a way more exciting cycle than The last one what happens after the Bitcoin having you know the fact that we Are going to the having most undervalued AI altcoin today and I am actually Invested in one of the AI tokens I Analyzed all of them and I found this One to be the best kind of bang for the Buck and much more and what could go Wrong what could go wrong like the video If you appreciate these conversations And let's start James I'm a fan of your Channel I subscribe but just for the Folks that don't know you what is your Background oh background is Financial Risk Management hedging money for big Companies and uh then was always a very Interested in technology and Transformation and Leveraging business process Automation In things like finance and markets model Building um very heavy on Analytics and uh was able to retire get
Out of the Rat Race in 2020 di for the covid Party history and when you found Bitcoin Where were you an instant believer or How did that Journey go no in 2017 uh Because I understand the importance of Scarcity uh it was fascinating to me I Was thinking 21 million wow you know Those 56 million millionaires on Earth If each millionaire decided to buy one Bitcoin they can't and that was very Like caveman thesis but scarcity was it And uh I did watch the 2017 then 2018 Crash and I was like but kept a very Close eye on it and uh then just nibbled Away and come the crash what I tend to Do is I wait for opportune moments and Then pounce for example I bought all of My ethereum on one day in March 2020 Literally all of it uh but I had been Nibbling and stacking into Bitcoin I Used to consider that my money market Because it's a hard asset and I know Markets and I know macro and I know Fiat Debasis so I thought there going to be No harm to just stack a little bit of This and the rest is history so I love How analytics based your channel is Could you just give us a state of the Crypto market today with the impact of The Bitcoin ETFs oh that is that is a Big story in fact I have a slide Prepared for you if you want because It's better to explain with numbers I
Love this the impact of the ETFs uh let Me just pull this up if I can And advanced alrighty little old coin Daily screen there so let's look at First of all this is a fascinating set Of numbers how if you take the number of Bitcoin in circulations 19.6 19.7 Million Bitcoin we know as well uh I've Been studying how many Bitcoin were lost Uh since 2017 that's a big part of my uh Scarcity thesis for Bitcoin so when you See 19.6 call it 20 there'll never be More than 15 million Bitcoin that's it And even on a daily basis people Continue to lose their Bitcoin so this Thing is just getting harder and more Scarce over time but if you look at the Breakdown of this and you look at how Much the ETFs have sucked in in just 62 Trading days and you compare it to just The total in circulation which doesn't Exist that's a fake number altogether It's 4.3% if you exclude Bitcoin not Moved in the last three plus years it's 88.4% and if you exclude Bitcoin not Moved in the last one year it's 18.7% so I also look at the hle Statistics which also there's more and More long-term holders as each day goes By because more and more Bitcoin gets Lost and more and more people understand That this is not something that you just Trade in and out of but if you want Security for the future you stack it as
As you can but that is stunning that in Just 62 tra trading days the new ETF Sucked in 20% of all Bitcoin that has Not moved in the last Year and then at that that has not moved In the last year yeah yeah and then add That to the Bitcoin having it's Basically Upon Us implications of the Bitcoin having yeah this I have I have a Slide hopefully for every question you Ask um this is from hudle 15 capital and He had a really nice way of explaining The having because I keep getting Questions you know we're going from 900 To 450 but what exactly does that mean For the average Bitcoin holder but he Framed it beautifully that imagine a new ETF is launching in 8 days they call it Magiot Bitcoin ETF they'll be buying 450 Bitcoin every single day even weekends For the next four years okay and that's Nothing is going to stop that buyer and Those Bitcoin will be taken from the System and destroy it and that's a good Way to understand the scarcity we're Talking about here uh and the other Thing that's really stunning if you look At the at you know the fact that we are Going to the having if you look at what The TFS have actually consumed just in 62 days they are consuming 20 XZ Issuance after the having in 8 days so What I mean by that if you look at the Average consumption per day for Fidelity
It's 2,433 Bitcoin which is astounding Considering only 900 are minded Black Rock 4,269 This is again all they bought Over the last 62 days and the daily Average is very high grayscale has Dumped 4,8 887 on average a day over 303 304,000 Bitcoin are gone in 62 days Which is staggering but if you just take All that data 4,158 are being consumed by these ETFs Every single day net of grayscale now if You pull grayscale out because they're You know Michael Sunan said they're Almost at equilibrium they are not going To be dumping as much as they were in The past that takes us to about 9 , 44 Bitcoin a day being consumed if the rate Over the last 60 days continues as it Did that means over 2,000% of the amount Mined will be consumed every day by the ETFs which is simply not sustainable the Price will go up and that I find very Fascinating and that doesn't even take Into account all the institutions now After the first 90 days they're going to Begin to allocate we've got Asian ETFs Coming Hong Kong represent pres in China A ton of ETFs and they have pretty much If you add up the billionaires in Hong Kong and China almost as many Billionaires as in the US that's a lot Of money coming right now into the Space hard when I see like people talk About the Bitcoin having on the
Mainstream media a lot of people ask Will that be a sell the news event which To me is a foolish question because it's Either going to go up 50% chance it's Going to go up that day 50% chance it's Going to go down long term you're Telling me I mean very bullish Statistics could you just lay it out Plain and simple what this means for Bitcoin's price at the end of the year Okay well the money hasn't arrived yet So the institutions are coming they Watched for 90 days this has been kind Of an ETF small allocation game so far And when the big money starts allocating Even if it's just 1% of their assets Under management the price theoretically Can very easily go north Of $200,000 $250,000 Um my conservative price Target I have Upped it for this bull run from 150 to About 170 if the CTF consumption continues now When we hit a supply Crunch things could get really Bonkers And that means you know if nobody is Selling and and there will always be People that bought Bitcoin and say $1,000 and $3,000 and $10,000 they'll Want what R poles lifestyle chips They'll be selling a piece to pocket Some cash that is not going to satisfy The appetite from these big institutions That are coming in so where we go this
Year I'm not sure but again my target For ETF inflows for the big nine was 50 Billion for the year we're at three Fifths of the way they already which is Staggering So my price projections I'm working on a New set of models which take into Account about 20 different models and I Hope to have that done next week but Right now the numbers are kind of Embarrassing I'm even afraid to share Because you don't want to be that guy That say oh Bitcoin is going to go to 100K last time around I my bull Target Was 79k and the in back in 2001 uh we Hit 69k so it got pretty close but that Was also a very manipulated cycle this Cycle is very different because we have Diminishing Supply increased demand Bitcoin is now an asset class unto Itself and the world is a house of cards From a debt perspective so people are Really looking for that hedge that Alpha And then we're not even talking about Japanese Pension funds and so much more That could allocate it's simply just the Scarcest asset on Earth So when you say Uh conservative price Target is 1 170 Thereabouts what is your time frame is It like generally speaking end of year Into 2025 for this cycle that is I do have Maybe I forgot to share it I do have a Chart for that somewhere but i' say to
Be Conservative this cycle has two ways of Going first of all it could run for the Typical you know year and a half that Would take us to September time frame uh 2025 the other alternative is we get a Perpetual bid coming in from the ETFs And that means Bitcoin will follow the Path that gold did when they launched Their ETF first which means it could go Up straight for eight Years which one is going to happen I'm Not sure this also talk that things are Happening well I've noticed things are Happening a lot earlier a lot faster Which means that 18 months could be Brought forward a little bit to maybe Early summer 2025 if we don't get that Perpetual bid but I think we there's a Good chance a good 20% chance we could Get that Perpetual bid so that 170 Target is for Mid 2025 Approximately I want to ask you about Other protocols ethereum Solana Etc but Anything we didn't mention on Bitcoin uh a couple of things one um What I find very interesting is where we Are right Now uh well we could talk more about That later because I think we might be Talking other macro elements that tie in Like fed let's talk about that now yeah When when the Federal Reserve Cuts rates What happens
Yeah so there's a lot of talk that They're not going to cut rates uh the Truth of the matter is the Fed do not Control inflation inflation is driven by Factors that are outside the fed's Control for example oil drives 40% of The CPI us does not control the price of Oil OPEC does Russia does Saudi Arabia Does and that's the real issue but State Street uh believe the FED will surprise And they will cut by half point in June And they are add on their own like this But they also expect 150 basis points Easing during the year that would really Turn on risk assets like Bitcoin in a Big way will they do this logically they Should the FED um the data they look at Is erroneous uh the world is in a whole World a hurt the European Central Bank Is going to cut real soon and normally Bank of England European Central Bank The bank of Japan were all in cahoots Coordinating movements If the European Central Bank cuts and The US dollar the FED doesn't that will Bring out a big diversion in the Currencies between dollar Euros which Could impact the global macro situation So I think the FED will have to follow If the ECB does and the European Central Bank knows the macro situation in Europe Is in the world are hurt so they're kind Of tied of the hip that's why I kind of Believe the State Street thesis and it
May not be June for the first cut it may Be July but what happens the reason we Care about fed Cuts is this this is the A little chart uh put together of the Impact of rates and the price of Bitcoin basically the little green Tey Line is rates and the swirly thing is Bitcoin price when rates go up Bitcoin Goes down when rates come down Bitcoin Goes up sometimes rates uh go up and Bitcoin goes up as well like the special Environment but it'll go up a lot more Because when they actually do cut as Well they're going to have to print a Lot more money which will raise the Price of Bitcoin in a big way so it'll Be an interesting time either way unless They break the economy because that's Ultimately the risk if they're Reactionary so they're cutting to Prevent something but they're too late Yeah the economy is already broken so They they share numbers like oh GDP is Really strong no the only thing growing Is the US government and then they say Oh the labor Market's really strong h no The thing that's growing is part-time Jobs people are getting second and third Jobs to live to make ends meet as they Say and you know that you're in La you You probably know people that are Personal trainers during the day and They drive in Uber at night and they Work at a bar in the weekends like I
Know so many of those people and they Are just struggling right now um it's Also a fact that 20 of the 50 states in The US are in recession so people say oh What happens if a recession hits it's Like hello We've been in and out of recession Different places for quite some time and That's the whole thing is Just It's it's all a joke in my opinion so What happens if a recession hits money Printer goes on faster than it is right Now it's just not hitting the people's Pockets it's hitting the banks but once They put it on in Big Time U assets will Go up it's just let's talk about other Protocols I'm assuming ethereum would be The second one you're most bullish or Maybe that's Solana um I I tend to have a very high Conviction when it comes to assets so What I do is I go hard into very few Assets so if you imagine my portfolio I'm about 90% in four things and that Covers a lot of stuff you know Bitcoin Micro Strategy Bitcoin miner like clean spark And Salina they're my four biggest Positions uh in disclosure my eth Position is about 0.6% of my portfolio Because I offloaded to buy salana last Year for a beginner that's just entering The crypto Market what is the value prop
Of Solana um I think it could be shown with A a little bit of data um first of All you take things like product Market Fit best cheapest fastest solution most Of daps uh people go to where the user Experience is best where it's most Features where they can trade Frictionlessly or play with meme coins Or whatever else uh you want to find That chain that has all of that and one Thing you know in crypto as well users Are very fickle they will bounce from Madic to arbitrum to Bas from weak to Week to week there's no loyalty in Crypto none whatsoever uh and we're we Seen a lot of that happen too we saw one Of the things that I spent a lot of time Working on is you know the older Technology the older names even though They have the Lindy effect which should Give them staying power in crypto it Doesn't matter because the newest Technology does best again best cheapest Fastest most secure is uh the place Where things are at and I know that like Salana for example it has more daily Active users uh then far more like four Times the amount daily act than ethereum And a lot more than some other chains it Does more transactions than all other Chains combined and my thesis was back In 2021 there would be a black hole that Consumes everything because the way
Markets work you don't have many winners Like how many Amazon are there how many Googles are there how many Apple iPhone Makers are there um The Winner Takes Most and the same thing I assumed would Apply to crypto despite many people Saying I probably wouldn't and and here We are so that's kind of how I think Things will shake out it's clear that The developers the users are choosing Solana from everything we've seen this Year and prior years the fud on Solana Is it's more centralized than a cardano Or something else does that matter in The long run well it depends how you uh Define centralized it shuts down and or They can shut it down when it gets Overloaded they they can educ yeah this This is part but and if you one of the Rumors that was flying around from some Silly person last year they say oh There's a switch to turn it off no There's not there's Validators and one of the key things to Look at when you look at a chain is What's called Nakamoto coefficient and That is the minimum number of validators You need to control to control half of The chain okay so the Nakamoto Coefficient for salana is about 22 right Now for cardano I think it's about 20 For e it's gone down since they moved to Proof of stake away from the mining uh World the most decentralized chain of
All is Bitcoin by far but one of the Challenges that they've had with outages Is it takes so long to get all the Valers to reboot if there's a problem Like a bug and code and most of the Stuff the outages have been caused by Bugs and Cat because they're focused so Much on on Speed I think of it as you know people Going around the track on bicycle and Then you got a Formula 1 car going Around the track at 220 M hour the odds Of the faster car crashing is much Higher than the bicycle going around at 15 miles an hour and that's the way to Think of this so when it comes to them Turning it off they can't they need Consensus from the validators and that Takes sometimes four hours 5 hours eight Hours to do to get the majority to reset Or reapply a patch or a bug and the Issue right now is there's one and a Half million people hitting the chain Every day they're doing about 60 Transactions each on average and that's Making it very busy uh there's also Other stuff there new mining protocols I Think there was a validator that created A new mining protocol called ore which Is bringing things to a halt the mcoin Revolution is driving a lot of traffic But it's good that they are being battle Tested now to get to the place where you Have have a billion people in crypto and
That is what's important and that's you Always have to look ahead to where the Puck is going to be three to five years Down the line and that's what they're Getting ready for right now my audience Is is a long-term audience we're looking For like what's going to have value in Five years 10 years would you James Humor me and steal man why something Like a cardano or an algrant would win Over Solana um I'm not going to say anything Bad about about any other chain because That just results in a lot of toxicity But I just look at data we have spent Years building models that analyze Every Chain across 60 to 100 different Parameters and the key is um you know You said the key point you said was for The next five years we don't know what Chain will be there six months from now I mean Bitcoin could go to zero Salon Could go to zero a new chain could be Developed by some kid in a basement with With some AI help and develop this new Chain that runs at 1 million TPS uh Course is free and it's completely Decentralized and everybody loves it That's that's what we have to prepare For I always say people need to keep Their tap dancing shoes on because we Don't know what's coming next and what's Super scary is this whole AI societal Impact that's happening everything is
Changing very fast the world today will Be radically different in 201 four Months and the world is not ready for That nobody can wrap their heads around It if Bitcoin clears at least your Conservative price projection for this Cycle where does that put Salana things get crazy so my like I Bought a lot of salana at eight bucks During the big dip and crash my bull Target was $100 back then I said this I See salana going from $8 to 100 bucks And now it's 175 180 and I look at uh my super Conservative Target for Salon is 360 uh and that's making 3% of crypto Market cap and crypto market cap goes to $3 trillion that's a simple back of the Napkin model uh in terms of other price Targets if the big game Cher here is We've already seen what happens with a Chain that is full of flaws but still Handles more transactions and users than Any other chain or even all chains Combined what happens if that chain gets 10x Faster that is the scary situation so This s called fire dencer they're Working on if they pull it off Um that becomes you know instead of have Running at what they are 3,000 TPS right Now it'll go to 50 to 100,000 TPS and When you get to 50,000 TPS that's enough To support you know that billion users
Technically as long as they're not doing More than 100 transactions a day so I Want to talk about AI but is there any Slides or charts that I'm missing for These l1s or can we move to AI uh we we Can move to AI it's just data slides Which kind of aren't that interested Well I have one slide if you want give Me one give me one let me see Um portion of screen hopefully it still REM the portion this just shows you the Perspective of just year to date of the Amount of transactions on salana that's Just up and to the right where Everything else is kind of Flat there is a new chain coming in There as well one of the s's below They're actually growing but what's Super interesting is bass how Bas has Come from obscurity it's a one node Centralized Layer Two on eth from Coinbase I think it runs at around 26 TPS and they are doing very well they Are actually smoking a lot of the other L2s so that's an interesting one to Watch but there is no token for it and People think oh I'm going to go buy base But you can't at least yet people love People love that coinbase brand name I Would guess is why they like that yeah And and people should be upset with Coinbase because you know during the Most important Market times it's often Not
Available there's a lot of a lot of tin Hat theories Regarding why that is but We won't go into that James Ai and Crypto what what's your thesis okay well AI well AI first of all um I have a Slide Sam timman is kind of one of the Interesting people to listen to he spoke About AI being a societal Revolution and How compute AI compute will be more Important than energy in the near Future the group or the organization That has the most compute wins it's that Simple um and it is also having an Impact on crypto as well so a lot of new Crypto projects are building their own Access to compute that people can pay For to do their own inference or manage Their own projects as well on the side Which I think is super interesting and I Am actually invested in one of the AI Tokens I analyzed all of them and I Found this one to be the best kind of Bang for the buck but what is it um it's A it's a thing called No so Um it's a AI play built on Salana and it's funny the name actually Just thought Nana salana sounds a bit Similar maybe that's on purpose but uh NOS of course maybe it's from the old History of nostas whatever I don't know But in terms of evaluation and speed and Adoption I have another AI play as well Called render a positioned in that too
And render are actually planning to Leverage some of the compute from Nana As well so I think that'll be an Interesting play going forward and uh in Fact here's a little chart of there's Another one that's very popular out There called toao bit and sore but I Don't like the fundamentals of it uh Played with it couldn't get it to work I Don't like the compendium score so I Think little ones like nasana even Though they're tiny like for example if Nasana hits the mark cap of T the price Go to 55 bucks and I think naso was Trading under $3 yesterday so a lot of Upside and I like To I never kind of dabbled before you Know 2017 2018 2019 I was you could call Me a Bitcoin Maxi and then my first Altcoin was ethereum in March 2020 and Since then I've de Degen a little bit More but these are very small positions In My overall portfolio because as I Mentioned at the beginning I'm in mainly In just four things for AI Like we're going to be getting from non- Crypto traditional companies like Nvidia We're going to be getting updates for The rest of the year if not the rest of The decade as this new uh not new but as This AI thing you know emerges into the Mainstream is that like to me that's It's just at least this year AI coins I Can see popping off the quality ones um
Even though the narrative will lift Everything is that sort of your view Yeah definitely you know the I'm Basically fully invested in two things It's Ai and crypto and I'm probably my Allocations I'm probably 80% in crypto And crypto proxies which span also Equities like Miners and micro strategy So that's been my whole play but there Will come a time when we pivot away from Crypto if we get to that top of the bull Signal that'll be the time to rotate Into other assets what is that signal What do you use I use a a thing called The top and bottom indicator to identify When Bitcoin gets to the top I have a I Can show you an image of it if you like Uh where is this proprietary or is this It's it's a it's a trading view Indicator that anybody can pull but this Is the top and bottom indicator so Basically it pulls in about 22 23 Different onchain indicators and creates A composite score and identifies where We are in the cycle based on all Previous Cycles and you know this this time is a Little bit different in terms of onchain Because the ETFs are having an impact on Bitcoin onchain analysis but you can Actually drill into this and you can Pull out any one of those onchain Indicators yourself and see how they Compare like it includes all the usual
Stuff like P Cycle Etc but the key is How it's built as a composite score so As I say I say we are Halfway to Heaven Right now when I see so if you look at The colors you know you see that cold Ice blue and then the teal and then the LI the light blue and then the line and Then the yellow we're at the yellow Stage right now uh the blue line is the Price of Bitcoin you can see in previous Cycles it's not a log chart if it's a Log charg you can see much clearer how It correlates it identifies the tops Perfectly in the past but when we start Getting into the orange dark orange red That's when you start to get nervous and That's when you start to take some off The table we're not there yet we're very We're halfway still a long way to go and Again this this model itself could be Redundant if we stay orange forever Because we get that Perpetual bid then We hold forever you know or we no need To hedge but if we start getting really Red that's a sign to maybe take some off The table or hedge the Bitcoin Position James do you think that this Could be one of the last great crypto Bull runs only because the largest asset Managers on Earth are buying now people Are seeing value in salana and eth now That's something we've always just hoped For yeah um well we do have Bitcoin Black hole so it is a very special time
With the institutions coming in and Buying like this we've never seen so Much money come into the space so fast These are unprecedented times however I Do believe this is the last great cycle We'll ever have I believe there's a good Chance we will exceed the returns of Last cycle because the last CLE was Manipulated but the fact of the matter Is there will be diminishing returns Because when you have a trillion dollar Asset uh it's very difficult for it to Grow um and if you look at the Diminishing returns the power L from Benig here you can see it's easy to go From 10 to 100 bucks harder to go from a Th to 10,000 pretty tricky to go from 10,000 To 100,000 now 100,000 to a million is a Big big big hill to climb will we get to A million dollars yes question is when I Don't know if it's going to be 2028 or 2040 but somewhere in that time frame But the sad news is people get excited When they hear about Bitcoin going to a Million dollars but the fact is you know In eight years the dollar will debase by 45 to 55% so that million dollars will Only be$ 450 to $550,000 in real value So everybody don't get too excited about A million dollars Million dollars in the future won't be Worth uh very much you know being back In the day when I was a kid I was like
Oh my that that that man over there is a A millionaire or that lady with the Driver she's a millionaire it's Like you know what a million dollars Will buy you in La these days uh a cup Of coffee and an Uber ride exactly Something like that now I I do believe Um what is exciting though is this is The last big crypto Bull Run I think We'll see with these types of gains Driven by the Bitcoin black hole but Then in the future going back to your AI Point I believe it'll be extremely Difficult to get excess returns in the Market being a Trader because AI will Control everything those that run the AI Have the AI build the models they'll be The ones tapping the markets first Before us retail normies can do So what I do urge people is this could Be the last big one for us to make Really truly life-changing money so stay The course don't try to get too cute Don't try play in and out of the market Um Bitcoin will go up how high how fast We're not sure but it's looking like if You asked me a year ago I've nearly Doubled my expectations because of the ETFs they are way bigger than my wildest Dreams and uh still remember as well I Think 70% of Bitcoin is now held by These long-term holders and many of them Have been in for a long time or their Coins are lost so this thing and what
Could go wrong what could go wrong like What would be a reason Bitcoin mudel out At 80,000 and doesn't succeed like you Think it Will um there would have to be a problem With the protocol or a serious Manipulator Or a scary thing like a fork or a double Spend problem these are kind of the the Things that could blow up on the horizon That's why everybody needs to go into The thing with the expectation there's Always a 1% chance that it could go to Zero and when you know that you can Allocate accordingly but you never want To have all your eggs in one Basket James I love your perspective I Subscribe to you links for your stuff Are down below final thoughts for the Altcoin daily Army um I think probably The most important thing is allocations In investing allocations are key um Think about what are the big things Changing the world right now my two big Narratives are Ai and crypto and I'm Absolutely 100% allocated to those two Um really do a lot of research follow The money follow the adoption follow the Assets with the best product Market fit And the best leadership teams uh keep up With regulations and other things and Probably most important is in life it Takes a lifetime to build wealth and a Second to lose it so anybody who is in
Crypto or even anywhere in the world you Are a Target there are people coming From you and coming for your bag so First thing you do is lock up your Security and be very careful out there H That's probably the most important thing Because I've I've heard of people Literally making a million bucks and Hook a wallet up to something and gone So that's Aect thank you James my pleasure and What about you what are your plans for This bull market and where do you see Things going oh man my audience has Heard from me I I mean very early on I Was always under the impression that Bitcoin has at least and I do agree Diminishing returns but at least minimum 3x um from previous alltime highs we Went from 20K to over 60k um So so 18200 is possible for you well I Always said I always said diminishing Returns minimum it would be a 2x so Minimum was always 120 and I haven't Changed since then but that's my that's My ultra conservative um but as you said Fundamentally things are much more Bullish today post ETFs than when I was Speculating you know before the ETFs so Yeah this this time is literally I'm a Student of history but this time Everything is is different everything is Different and it's a super exciting this
Is way more exciting cycle than the last One I believe way more
