Welcome back some very interesting Dynamics are happening right now to the US housing market this is based on my Nerdy analysis of the latest data we Have from realtor.com regarding asking Prices housing inventory price Reductions and much much more um just Like my previous videos I'll provide a Summary at the end of this video as well To give you some my insights regarding What this data actually means and also Kind of recap regarding what happened to Our housing market over the past couple Of weeks so here's the article from Realtor.com just posted um last Thursday I believe on September 26th but you guys Know I don't even read that instead go To uh what is this realtor.com Researchdata I will provide a link in The video description below though so Click on weekly inventory and then click On that link right there it takes you More or less to this information so Let's talk about asking prices and this Um covers the week ended September 21st The data here looks at the changes Compared to one year ago so asking Prices decreased by 1% compared to 12 Months ago this marks the 14th Consecutive week in which asking prices Are down from 12 months ago asking Prices are negative because inventory is Much higher compared to last year and of Course home sales are still at
Relatively low levels as well in my Opinion home sales will not improve Unless rates and or home prices decrease Further and by the way forward looking Indicators regarding future home sales That's based on pending home sales and Of course application numbers as well People applying for a loan to buy house Um are still at relatively low levels as Well which all implies we're going to See this you know stagnation of home Sales for the remainder of the Year all Right let's change here slightly here And talk about house inventory numbers The amount of houses for sale compared To 12 months ago only looking at Existing houses the resale Market Excluding brand new home construction or Brand new houses so last week that Rose By 33.2% so now inventory is higher Compared to the previous year for the Past 46 consecutive weeks so inventory Higher compared to the previous 12 month Period um ever since really mid November This year the good news um for home Buyers of course is that of course we Have more inventory this means you have More negotiating power as well this of Course is especially true in areas that Have a glut of um hous inventory such as Parts of Texas and Florida for example Also as my note says right there um just Kind of providing my own boots on the
Ground experience of being an agent here In the greater segment area u a client Of mine just got their offer accepted About one week ago um they had the Seller pay off the solar system and the Solar system payoff is around $4 to $45,000 that the seller is paying so Basically my client's going to be taking A or buying a house in which a solar Paid off uh normally especially in 2020 Through early 2022 that was basically unheard of um The uh buyer um normally would take over The seller's payments or their lease Entirely abnormal to see the seller Actually paying off uh the solar panels But this is a different Market market Today right because of more inventory That we're seeing in the greater segment Area of course Nationwide as well home Buyers have more negotiating power so on Top of the seller paying off the solar Panels they are also giving my client a $10,000 closing cost credit this means Their out of pocket expenses of buying The house just decreased by $10,000 again unheard of compared to the Craziness of 2020 through early 2022 Let's also discuss the bad news for home Buyers right now though so it's great to See that have we approximately what 33% More homes from sale but the growth rate Has been stagnant for the past 4 and a Half months it has been paid at around a
Gain of 33 to 38% everever since May This year also the 33% gain we saw last Week was one of the smallest increases We seen since the four weeks ended or The week ended April 20th this year so Here's the key key takeaway inventory Growth has been stagnant mainly from a Low amount of houses being listed for Sale so new listings have been rising by Only single digits for quite some time Before that we saw double dig gains of New Supply in the market um to basically Start the year I'll share more of that Regarding a new Supply in the market or New listings here in a little bit but Let's first talk about my own analysis Of alus research.com latest data Regarding inventory levels so one year Ago we had approximately 500 34,000 existing houses for sale U and Now we have approximately 731 th000 so Approximately 196,000 more homes for Sale compared to 12 months ago that is An increase of 37% year-over-year but just like rcom's Data suggests this also has been kind of Stagnant as well has been hovering Around a gain of around 38% ever since May this year so inventory has been Rising at the same rate as last year Ever since May this year so we're up by About 37% but the growth rate is BAS is Basically moving in line with last Year's levels so in other words the
Growth rate is flat year-over-year in Other words not increasing uh like we Once saw to start the year in addition To that there's approximately 232,000 More houses for sale right now compared To the start of this year uh Based on Data from alos compared that to a gain And that by the way was a 46% increase So far this year so January through when Is this late September uh inventory is Up by 46% compar that to the same time frame Last year it only increased by 133% so Therefore inventory growth is overall For the year is growing much faster Compared to last year it's also Rising Much faster compared to preco levels so For example hous inventory rose on Average by 16% from January through August in 20 17 through 2019 compare that to a gain of around 37% so far this year again that's the Same time frame January through August Looking at data from realtorcom however Though the increase this year is much Less than the same time frame in 2022 so January through August of 2022 inventory More than doubled or was almost doubled A gain of around 93% Whereas this year it increased by only 37% this my friends is why I do not Expect to see a sharp correction in um Home sales and of course a decrease in Home prices year-over-year like we saw
In 2022 however home price growth should Soften though due to four main reasons Number one the decrease of asking prices Of houses for sale as I share with you Guys number two more inventory levels or More hous of for sale number three Seasonality because our housing market Tends to wind down in the winter months And lastly number four sluggish home Sales of course let's keep an eye on This in the coming months and I'll Definitely keep posted with any new Developments to summarize evenor is Rising more than twice as fast as preco Levels but not Rising nearly as fast as 20122 also comparing inventory levels um This week compared to the scene time Frame in 2019 we have approximately 22% Fewer homes for sale right now so why is Inventory not skyrocketing and the Answer really is this right here so new Listings Rose by um 8% compared to 12 Months ago this marks the fifth straight Week of year your gains but again only Rising by single dings less than 10% for The most part since May new listings Have increased from the previous year by Less than 10% in contrast they Rose by Over 10% from February through April This year therefore the growth rate of New Supply here in the market has Stalled causing hous inventory growth to Also stall as well let me share this
Kind of scenario regarding um new Listings kind of losing momentum and Here's a really good chart looking at um That on redfin's data center so to start The year and by the way the orange line Of course is this year last year is the Blue line below so the start of the year We were up by 10.8% so uh around what 11% more new L scenes compared to scene Time frame in 2023 we kind of lost some momentum in January but then it picked up again in February Rising by double digits through More or less until we hit basically uh May so new linges were Rising by about 10 or over 10% uh to start the year but Ever since then new listings have Basically been um in kind of stagnation Mode Rising by less than 10% excluding These uh past couple of weeks here in Which new Supply is rising faster than Last year's levels but overall uh for The year as a whole inventory was or I Should say new listings were Rising by More or less double digits to for the First few months of the year but ever Since then Rising by less than 10% which Is causing um housing Supply to Rise um By uh lower levels uh ever since the spr Spring months this year all right Changing years slightly here to talk About how fast or how slow houses are Selling right now so last week which is The week ended September 21st it took 6
Days longer to sell home compared to one Year ago this marks the 20th consecutive Week in which homes are taking longer Sale compared to the previous year this Is much different compared to October Last year through March this year when Homes were selling faster compared to The previous year here's the impact to Our housing market as houses take longer To sell they're staying on the market Longer that all contributes to the rise Of housing inventory especially when Sales remain very low as well of course Housing Supply or housing inventory Would rise much faster if new Supply in The market or new lisings were Rising by More than 10% so in other words the uh Single data gains of new listings has Basically kind of been um causing the Growth rate of inventory levels to Remain at low levels right now all right Let's also talk about the increase in The number of reduced price listings uh Nationwide uh last week that Rose by 29.6% therefore the number of price Drops has been higher compared to last Year for the past 35 consecutive weeks However even though there's more price Drops um this year compared to last year The gain of 29.6% we saw last week is the second Smallest increase since the end of March This year let's take a look at um alos Research.com looking at the share of
Reduced price listings so for the week Ended September 27th um overall on a National level the share is at 39% this Means that four at very 10 homes for Sale Nationwide have reduced their Asking price here's the difference Though because for the past several Weeks now ever since really when was This July 26 so the past two consecutive Months uh the share of price drops has Basically been stagnant at around 39% this is higher compared to last year At 37% but lower than the same time frame In 2022 when back then the share was at 42% also the big difference um in 22 Compared to this year the trough was at 177% and by the time we hit that time in 2022 or this time in 22 it increased to 41% so share price drops more than Doubling uh compared to the trough Whereas this year we went from 30% to 39% so a small gain of around 9 Percentage points from the trough this Year which was basically in February so Big takeaway regarding that is that We're not seeing a shock of a housing Market in which price drops were Doubling inventory was doubling mortgage Rates were doubling um so we're not Seeing this um shock regarding the Housing market like we saw uh during That time in 2022 but again keep in mind Overall comparing the med sale price in
2022 compared to the calendar year of 2021 home prices still increased even Though rates doubled mortgage rates Doubled and of course the share of price Shops also doubled as well so again That's one of the reasons why I do not Expect to see home prices decrease um Greatly this year um we had some Challenges especially regarding housing Affordability but we're not seeing this Shock and awe like we saw in 2022 having said that you know it's not Perfect right now of course there's a Lot of challenges at 39% higher than last year a little bit Lower than uh 22 but at 39% much higher Compared to 21 2020 as well as preco uh Back in um early October 2019 the share Was at approximately 37% and right now we're at 39% all right I want to share a summary with you guys Because of course that was a lot of Information to to kind of digest so Number one asking prices have been down Your year for the past 14 consecutive Weeks this is from a significant rise of Housing Supply more sellers have to Compete against each other which is Causing asking prices to decrease and The decline of asking prices can be tied To the sharp run up in home prices over The past several years which is keeping Home buyers on the sidelines due to Housing affordability constraints number
Two housing inventory increased by 33% Last week but the growth rate has Basically been stagnant for the past 4 And a half months um paid at around 33 To 38% everever since May this year also The gain of 33% um that we saw last week Was one of the smallest gains we've seen Since late April this year in my opinion Inventory gains are losing momentum from A Slowdown in the number of new listings Hitting the market however there's still Approximately 22% fewer homes for sale Right now compared to scene time frame In 2019 real estate is local though right Because as of August looking at data From realtor.com thanks to some anal From resic club anal.com uh there's four States that have more existing homes for Sale this August compared to August of 2019 those four states are Texas 8% more Homes for sale from 2019 Idaho is up by 9% Florida gain of 6% and Tennessee is Up by 5% there's also four more states That are not too far behind as well so I'm actually really curious once they Release uh September's numbers I think Potentially later this week so for Example Washington Utah Colorado and Arizona have approximately 1 to 2% fewer House of for sale this August compared To August of 2019 of course this is um noteworthy Because areas that have more inventory
Uh this year compared to preco are areas In which home price growth are slowing Down the most or home prices are Decreasing outright number three of Course we know that a majority of Homeowners have rates far below current Rates today so for example this has been Limiting the amount of new Supply in the Market uh in other words we're not Seeing for selling right now at least Not on a large scale because of course People have a 2 and 1 half to 3 and Half% rate you know why would they sell And buy new house because rates today Are in the low sixes so this is all Limiting um home sales and transactions Overall I'm not saying that you know Sales are stalling out altogether Everyone has the reasons for buying They're renting in a small apartment for Example they have a growing family job Relocation divorce death Etc everyone Has their own choices regarding if it's Right for them to move or not but in any Case because of this Dynamic of Regarding this kind of like golden Handcuffs that home buyer or home owners Have right now uh this is causing new List scenes to rise by only single Digits and like I mentioned in in weeks Past and months past I do not expect to See a giant surge of new Supply H in the Market unless unemployment spikes in Other words I do not expect to see a you
Know sharp increase of new listings Unless we start seeing forced selling on A large scale and speaking of that as Well on Friday we have a big jobs report For the month of September and that will Um list um how many jobs um were added Uh non-farm payroll uh jobs were added And on top of that they will also Announce the unemployment rate for September as well um based on that Report on Friday that could uh change The direction of mortgage rates greatly So keep an eye on that because a lot Could change regarding uh the data we're Seeing today based on that report that's Going to be announced on Friday morning Um Also let's go kind of move on here Number four the share of price Rejections is no longer at a five-year High during the same time frame because Again like I shared um the share price Shops right now is below 2022 Peak um Also in a span of 6 months in 2022 like I mentioned the share price shops more Than doubled this year a small gain up Um from 30% to 39% number five last week Houses on average took about six days Longer to sell also homes have been Sitting on the market longer taking Longer to sell for the past 20 Consecutive weeks as homes have been Taking longer to sale this has Contributed to the rise of housing Supply but wait there's more number one
Let's talk about rates because um I Haven't really talked about that so much On today's video so the average 30-year Fix rate um is very close to a 1 and A2 Year low um more or less the lowest Rates we've had going back to February Of 2023 at least very close to that um On top of that housing affordability has Improved due to this decreasing or Decrease in rates but it remains an Issue mainly from elevated home prices And of course in some areas um giant Increases of home insurance rates such As parts of Texas and Florida for Example so housing affability Constraints can be seen by the record Low level Or near record low level of pending home Sales in August according to n or the National Association rors so looking at Data from um August regarding a measure Of contracts being signed between buyers And sellers of existing houses that's Pending home sales for the month of August is actually lower than the Great Recession more or less the lowest levels Except for the previous month which was July and their data by the way goes back To 2001 so this is U really kind of Telling us or telling me that we have a Lack of contracts being signed on a National level and therefore we're going To see a you know a small amount of Close home sales in the coming months
Because of that all right moving on Number two the most recent stats we have From the MBA showing mortgage purchase Applications that actually increased for The first time I think in years correct Me if I'm wrong I think it's the first Time in years in which application Numbers increase compared to the Previous year it is a small gain though Up by only 2% that's for the week ended September 20th this year I believe again Like I mentioned this is the first time In years in which applications Rose from One year ago also uh n reported that Pending home sales for existing houses Decreased by 3% um year over year and Basically the second lowest reading on Record going back to 2001 absolutely Insane so in contrast new home Construction or sales from that based on A contract being signed between between A builder and a home buyer that actually Increased by whopping 99.8% this August compared to August Last year so the resale Market is very Close to alltime record lows down by 3% Yet um home sales for brand new houses Rose by nearly 10% during the same time Frame home builders are still facing Head Woods though because they have Approximately the same number of homes For sale right now As he did in 2008 number three looking Forward for the nation as a whole asking
Prices are down inventory has been Increasing homes are sitting on the Market longer and price reductions are More common now than they were in 2019 we have been moving towards a buyer Market not any buyer Market on a National level but towards one uh but Every hous markets different right Inventory in California and the Northeast part of the United States um Have you know a lot fewer homes for sale Than 2019 obviously much different than Texas Idaho Florida and Tennessee that Have more homes for sale than 2019 number four the most important one If you guys are still watching today's Video here's a virtual high five I Appreciate you guys so much please like And subscribe if you haven't done so Already have an amazing day and I look Forward to seeing you on the next video [Music] [Music]
