All right here we go it's just after 9:30 and that means the markets are now Open oh markets down just a little bit Um but I suspect things may change in The not too distant future investors are Now awaiting the federal reserve's Latest policy decision and for the first Time in four years the FED is expected To cut interest rates at uh its meeting Today the FED has held rates steady Since its July meeting last year but Last month fed Shar Jerome poell said The time has come for a policy Adjustment if you will uh right now the Federal fund uh rate stands at a range Of five and a quarter to 5 and a half% That is the highest in 23 years so CBS News uh contributor heavier deid is Joining me now here in studio 57 with a Preview of today's Fed rate decision so The general consensus is a cut is coming It's just how big is it going to be into 25 it's a complete tossup at this point So CNBC apply describes it as this Action-packed meeting this is going to Be the first time in years we're Actually getting a rate cut um if you Believe that the Federal Reserve is Behind the curve AA okay they should Have loosed monetary policy sooner and You're probably doing what some in the Market is doing are doing which is Pricing in a half percentage point cut My own personal gut this is my personal
Feeling it's going to be 25 but one of Those who's on the other side of this Argument is billionaire investor Jeff Gunlock very Savvy guy who's made way More than either of us could ever see in Our lifetime several lifetimes he thinks A recession is imminent and he feels Like the FED has been asleep at the Switch but the unbiased take is look you Had the retail sales data yesterday you Had manufacturing output those were Stronger than expected despite the Softening in the jobs Market it just Doesn't reflect an economy that's sort Of on the cusp of recession or in crisis Or at all again my gut says 25 Especially in the wake of that data but Thank goodness for the indefatigable uh Us consumer they continue to spend um They keep us floating we we all do well So do I so that we're we're proning our Companies our country so um there's a Case for monetary policy though I should Say this that being most effective with The element of surprise so it's likely It's like go big or go home so the FED Could come with 50 basis points but it's More than likely to sort of do the down Payment here's 25 we're going to sort of Sort this out over the course of the Next year definitely by the end of the Year there's always November there's Always December like you everyone calm Down we don't have to get it yeah we can
Get there slowly yeah I'm with you I Feel like Jerome Powell is like very He's very measured and he really doesn't He's not one to surprise he telegraphs Yeah where he's going exactly um so then What will this mean for Americans even If it's a quarter percentage Point That's got to be good it's good it means All the things that we pay interest on Credit cards mortgages you know personal Loans we're about to get a modicum of Relief and it's a small sort of token Measure but the best thing fed can do Right now is indicate this is the first Stop on a path to gradually lower rates Over the course of the next year that Means that you know over a set period of Time we're going to get much more Substantial relief and see that in you Know the form of your lower APR if You're looking for a car I actually just Spoke to a friend last night who said he Was out shopping for a car that he had You know to replace he had an accident About a year or so ago um just complete Sticker shock it's not affordable really Um and used car prices have down Substantially you remember During abely and that's come off sharply But it's really the APR that people are Just kind of like you look at it and You're trying to war game exactly how Much you're going to pay every month It's it's up there and those are in
Double digits and as much as we talk About mortgages being 6 7% um and auto Loans are like 17 18 depending you know Where you get it and what your credit Score is and all of those other good Things um so you touched a little bit on This what Jerome pal will be looking at What sort of um metrics he'll be looking At and we should point out that you know I feel like a lot of the recent reports That people freaked out about kind of Later on were adjusted and everyone kind Of like rethought their overreaction yes So the the range there's a range of Things that they look at and the first Is the personal consumption expenditure Data that's their preferred gauge of Inflation Last Read we got was a few Weeks ago showed a monthly gain of 2% as Expected not catastrophic but just kind Of reminds us that prices are still Rising and I think this is why Business Insider had a great article yesterday That they published about the feeling About the economy that we're not at 9% Inflation like we were two years ago but 2019 prices were still way way off and We're not going to see that anytime soon So there's a feeling that a frustration And just a sort of a Soo thing but you Know keeping in mind the FED has two Mandates so that means they're watching Jobs figures very closely and as the FED Chairman himself has indicated there's
Been a market softening they do not want Any more of what we've seen in terms of Layoffs to sort of metastasize into Something that's much more dramatic much More sort of widespread in terms of Layoffs enough's enough there like let's Give the market a little bit of juice But not so much that it overs stimulates The economy all over again all right Sounds good have your de uh thank you so Much sure
