Guys this is the lowest it's been in Four months Everything Has Changed Forget everything you knew about the Four-year cycle we're at a four month Low on bitcoin trading dominance you Excited yet I am not [Music] [Music] Foreign [Music] And I'm talking about Jimmy Cramer no no Recession says Jim Cramer his analysts Point to a good sign of Rebound in Commodities so Kramer's out there he's Saying no recession what does that mean To you chat uh he commented on this Yesterday on the economic growth and Inflation's trajectory uh so what Happened it looks like uh Schwab Analysts uh shared a chart of commodity Prices saying they're rebounding with a Nearly 75 percent having positive Monthly returns and uh down from the Previous month of 81 percent elevated Compared to last year uh given his take On the chart Kramer said no recession Good sign going by the future of China As represented by Baltic Freight Kramer Said inflation is low too so uh looks Like some good Baltic Freight happening At the time the index has become an Indicator of Chinese uh economy's Strength over the years uh Freight waves Report show the BDI is 40 weighted to
Spot rates of Cape sizes bulkers with a Capacity of a hundred and eighty Thousand deadweight tons and Cape size's Uh rates depend on largely on long-haul Iron X Sports from Brazil to China Arc Investor Kathy Woodson a podcast China Is now at the margin as is downshifted From 15 years of double-digit growth Rate to high single digit rate growth Now solar growth in China removed the Pressure on consumption and bring down Global inflation uh JPMorgan analyst Said according to Wall Street Journal so We have a China still a robust economy Still a strong economy just not as Strong as it was five years ago all Right big short investor Steve Eiseman Says the market will continue to melt up As long as there's no recession and There's still no sign of one I like how They have uh they don't actually show Steve Eisman they're like you know what Let's get the guy from The Office uh if You've seen the movie he's the one that Was his character there's no indication Of a recession he told cnpc uh due to That many people are playing catch-up Helping fuel for the gains as long as There's no evidence of one I think the Market will continue to melt up people Are chasing although he says the hiking Cycle as a potential Catalyst for a Downturn he told CNBC that nothing Points to a recession yet and that
Suggests the market will continue to Rally best known for the housing crass Prediction portrayed in The Big Short he Said that his firm continues to be fully Invested with no plans to withdraw as Long as the economy keeps chugging along I don't know this is true or not but It's my understanding he really hasn't Had a good call since then I don't know That's true it's just uh but I heard a Talking head say that once he definitely Doesn't have a high percentage of good Calls that's for sure yeah I mean he he Bet big back in the day and it worked Out well so you know I mean I think that Movie that the book popularized him but Then the book you know then turned into A movie then you get Steve Carell Playing it and you know he's like hey It's like Kiyosaki you had like a really Popular book and he's like still writing The coattails I'm not saying he's riding Coattails from 20 years ago prediction I'm saying it's from a 15 year old uh Prediction here the only caveat I would Say is after the FED raises rates Powell Will speak and if history is any guide He will be dovish even when he wants to Be hawkish that just tends to be his Personality oh now he's mind reading Another reason uh the recession hasn't Emerged yet is that corporate net Interest payments have actually Fallen Amid the hawkishness strong economic
Performance has also been paired by Equity Market strength as investors Shrug off the tightening cycle to Rally Around the big Tech firms that benefit From new developments in AI so it looks Like AI hey oh you can fire 70 of your Workforce so then AI is going to replace Everybody that's good for your bottom Line let's pump that stock up is that Good for the economy though I don't know Uh let's see National League won the All-Star Game okay I did not know that Did not know that Mark the shark has uh Some sort of uh thing that happened so Congrats to you I don't know what it is Uh United okay all right all right it's Steve it's a Steve roll with it that Makes sense [Music] [Music] I see no signs of recession on the Horizon narrator keep looking bankruptcy Search U.S business failures are piling Up at the fastest Pace since 2010 by This one measure So 2010 we had the 08 crisis the 09 Crisis I find it interesting that they Don't have data from 0809 which makes me Think it was lower So meaning this could be a lagging Indicator that kind of makes sense uh You know people oh yeah we have enough Money in the bank for payroll for six Months and then during that six months
They get another three months worth and Then it's like they they keep chugging Along and then they break down nine Months after the the recession so you Will so lagging indicator seems to uh Trend okay so two years after recession It looked really bad as of now though We're coming in two years after 2021 I mean I don't know what to look at this I I think it's really there's too many Variables going on with U.S business Failures I think you have ai's one Variable I think you have uh you know The pandemic is another variable I think You have the lessening of globalization Kind of you know so maybe your things Cost a little bit more that you used to Get from China two years ago maybe you Got to pay 40 more maybe that hurts your Bottom line And you have a consolidation of power so You have a lot of companies being bought So I don't know if we can look too much Into this what are y'all's thoughts here Yeah um it's not something to write off The bat I mean correlation is it's not It's not as bad as I mean the blue is Not as bad as the back in 2010 Um yeah it does look like it's the Highest uh is it tied with 2020 but of Course that would have been pandemic Yeah I don't think there's So yeah I think it's I think it's too Too little information to really make a
Lot out of that chart all right U.S Economy is in 4A roller coaster whoa And could be headed for an ultra rare Full employment recession so what is Happening BlackRock saying you know hey Roller coaster could be a ultra rare Full employment recession that just Sounds like a Pokemon I want to catch Here uh though inflation has caused Signifi as ease uh significantly from Its 41 year high there are conflicting Pressures in the economy that could make Prices volatile uh BlackRock said that's Because consumers are shifting their Spending from Goods to Services which is Driving Goods deflation but at the same Time the labor market remains tight Which is driving wage inflation as Workers push for higher pay all right You ready for another DZ and Encapsulation here That makes sense and it's going to Continue to turn this way as we consume More and more digital content as we Consume more and more stuff that isn't Tangible as we consume more and more uh Ones and zeros so I'm spending money on Ones and zeros this percentage ten years Ago it was this percentage 10 years Before that it was nothing and so with That you're going to have less Goods Right like you're gonna have less items Being produced as more and more people Live there uh what's the word I'm
Looking for there it's a digital economy It's a digital economy I don't want to Say vacationing in the More and more money is going to be spent On the internet meaning less goods and More services when you think about what A vacation is just to be your Escape Your rest you know relaxation that is What people are doing they are working As little as possible so they can go Home and relax and rest in a completely Different world [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Applause] [Music]
