Let's talk about these markets in three Minutes then Mark and pull together some Of the threads we've seen because it's Been a really interesting 24 hours Actually we had some fairly hawkish Comments as we mentioned in our Headlines from some of our from some of Our from some Central Bank Governors but Then when I'm thinking of Walla here and His comments about the Dot Plot but then We've got Bostic talking about what he Sees as the possibility of pause in the Summer and it seems the market lent only A dovish interpretation to what he had To say how do you pull all of these Threads together then Mark Well as far as I know Waller's a voter And Bostic isn't that's one thing to Think about the second thing is Waller Said if you know the next couple of the Data doesn't soften before the the March Uh fomc meeting then he's going to Change his Dot Plot he is definitely Going to have to change his Dot Plot no One in the world is expecting inflation To suddenly soften on the next data Print and there's no sign of jobs Weakness either I mean sure we're not Going to have a blowout NFP again I hope For the sake of the the kind of rates Market out there Um but it's unlikely to suddenly be Negative jobs so it is very clear the Dots are going to go much higher and
Waller is going to be moving his own Dots a chunk higher as well we know that In March okay I think that's the really Important takeaway as for Bostic sure we Might get a pause in the summer but the Summer is still three or four months Away by my calendar Okay yes so that's what we're talking About in terms of the in terms of the The time Horizons here so tell us how You see what happened yesterday Happening you talked about how the focus Was on higher rates and about whether we Get to uh to five percent on the Two-year for example and yet stocks rise On some comments that could have been Seen as hawkish perhaps were taken as Dovish from one Central Bank governor Who's not voting why are markets in that Kind of mood mark Yeah I I have to say I thought the Resilience yesterday was very impressive There is something that I find uh that Is interesting there's a couple Takeaways one is the curve starting to Re-step them actually the long end go up And that's actually quite a good thing We're seeing the curve normalize a Little bit and that's kind of a little Bit healthier for markets is that the Reason that stocks Rose no I'm not Really sure it is but it's kind of a Background healthier uh Dynamic we have Talked about in recent weeks that the
Way the idea that if yields rise because Of a hawkish Fed official that's less Good for equities you're right to point Out we didn't see that yesterday I think That there's a certain Dynamic that with Two-year yields having risen 85 basis Points in just over a month there's a General view that hey they can't go much Further from here and the fact that Those hawkish comments from Waller Didn't see a big rise in the two-year is Kind of going okay the rates move for Now is short-term exhausted sure they Might be going much higher in a month or Two but they're not going to go much Higher in the short term and that means That equities might get a little bit of A bid here the final thing to observe is It's a little bit of a technical Situation we bounced off some key Technical levels and we've had the new Month calendar rollover after some Rebounding at the end of last month so That's going to help a little bit of the Margin too Okay we've just had a few days to get Used to the idea that it is March what a Relief it is March let me ask you then About what's going on with crypto crypto Syncing seems to be their uh the Headline here and we can see continue to See that overnight down four and a half Percent I see on bitcoin Um I I read that due to silvergate this
Latest crypto Fallout Story the banking System is quote mostly sheltered from it Which is sort of comforting Yeah absolutely it's a sheltered but I Think there's been some high profile Funds that appear to have been maybe Exposed to this there's just a little Bit of nervousness across the sector About what is the next kind of domino to Fall it shows that we're not past the Crypto turmoil of 2022 it's going into 2023. Okay we'll focus in on that no doubt for Sure as we go through this year remember You can get up-to-date analysis and Insight from Mark and the rest of the Markets live team mlib goes the function To use on your Bloomberg terminal
