Priya your tenure just south of four Percent a break at that level in the Last couple of minutes we're down seven Basis points 398. you like it you're a Buyer why I think you have to position for what The fed's going to engineer which is a Hard Landing you know the inflation is Sticky we were thinking that inflation Was going to be sticky with uh with a Very hot labor market Um and you know the data is confirming That the consumer is not slowing down so We think the fed that's that's very data Dependent is going to continue to hike And then stay restrictive until we see That slowdown in the economy so I think Owning tens is a way to position for That hard Landing you know I think Duration risk is more attractive than Credit risk Equity risk so I think You're supposed to start to leg in you Know it's 4.9 or 4.09 the peak I don't Know but I think getting in that four Percent range this is very attractive Because the fed's going to have to cut Rates next year when inflation gets Closer to two percent and the Unemployment rate uh you know starts to Move higher towards five percent now Prayer would you phrase it the following Way as well is that how you would Characterize it a short-lived Re-acceleration in the economy
Yeah I'm not even sure if it's a Re-acceleration I think the economy is Strong there's a lot of momentum I think The big macro question here is is data Strong because policy is not restrictive Or the lags have not yet played out and We're very much in the latter Camp it Takes a long time I mean 12 to 18 months Policy turned restrictive I would argue Only late last year I mean the FED funds Rate crossed four percent in December so You know we're so uh We've we've just Started to price in this higher just a Tighter monetary policy real rates have Been also one percent only in the last Couple of months so I think it just Takes a while but I'm concerned that the FED in this data dependent mode is going To look at the data and even though I Would agree with Jim I think there were Seasonal issues we had the cola Adjustment in Jan uh you know personal Disposable income went up it's not clear The data is going to be that weak in or The the February data will be that week So there's a Fed look at that and say we Have to keep going I do think they stay In these 25 basis point increments Because we're nearing the end you know Whether it's five and a quarter or six Percent or somewhere in that range I Think they go 25 but if they don't see a Slowdown in growth in inflation I think They could keep going well into July
Potentially September yeah and made Policy a lot more restrictive I think The economy needs time not more hikes But I think we just don't know which is Why the fed's going to keep going
