Employers in the US are
experiencing an unprecedented Labor shortage supply chains are
also facing slowdowns all around The country. vaccine mandates
have left some employers with no Other option than to fire
workers who refuse to get Vaccinated against COVID-19.
Leaving even more open Positions, not to mention the
virus itself, which has killed An estimated three quarters of a
million people in the US alone. We have to recognize that one of
the reasons why some folks are Hesitant to go back to work is
because they're afraid they're Afraid about catching the virus. A hot job market is also adding
to the pressure especially for Critical in person jobs in
health care, policing and Education. Some states have
turned to the National Guard to Fill in the gaps. A site most parents likely never
thought they'd see the Massachusetts National Guard
driving transport vans to get Kids to school a sign of how
dire the worker shortage in the Education system continues to
be. But we also do see other senior
guard leaders pushing back on Some of these second order
pandemic linked missions. 25,900 National Guard personnel
are currently supporting Domestic operations. The federal
government has also reportedly Looked at how the National Guard
could be used to alleviate the Supply chain crunch across the
nation, something that not all Observers think will help You they might do a little bit
around the edges but but it's Not gonna it's not going to
solve the issue. Is it a smart move for the
economy to use the military as a Stopgap to buy time for a long
term solution. The United States has a unique
military system due to the Federalized nature of the
country along with national Military branches each state
government in some territories Such as DC and Puerto Rico have
their own state specific National Guard organizations.
These separate National Guard
Organizations can call it
members on state orders or Federal orders to react to
events such as war or natural Disaster. Today, some states are
using National Guard personnel To fill in labor gaps in Oregon,
New York, California and other States. The guard has been
called upon the staff medical Facilities to make up for
shortfalls throughout the Pandemic in Massachusetts, the
guard are being used to process Covid tests nationwide, they're
still over 11,500 National Guard Members supporting Covid
operations and 26,000 National Guard personnel were activated
after the January six Insurrection to provide security
around the Capitol. The guard Was heavily used during the
demonstrations in the summer of 2020. To help local police
maintain order in some cities. And some states most notably
Texas have sent guard Contingents to the border with
Mexico to help law enforcement With controversial border
missions. Use of the guard isn't Without a cost. Some of these
missions can put a strain on Keeping personnel in the
National Guard. And they can Also put a huge strain on
equipment which can incur future Costs down the road. If you have equipment that keeps
staying on the road for stuff Like PPE distribution or vaccine
distribution, and wild Firefighting, you know that
you've got to refit your Equipment at some point. And
that also is going to cost more Money that would normally be
allocated to maintenance and Stuff that's meant to support
the guards federal mission. Most National Guard troops are
part time soldiers that hold Other full time jobs in the
communities that they live in, Which means that moving them
into short field positions could Open another labor gap in the
economy. Communities frankly might not
notice that their Guardsmen are Gone. But who does is employers
no matter what your job is, if You get pulled from it, to go
and do something they're going To notice, you know, whether you
volunteered for it or whether
You were involuntarily
mobilized. There's concern that The cumulative impact on
employers could lead to guard Troops being chronically
underemployed. Perhaps in some Cases becoming unemployed should
federal or state employment Protections not proved
sufficient. Meanwhile, jobs in the United
States are going unfilled. The Combination of the so called
Great resignation record Purchasing from consumers and
the fallout from the pandemic Have resulted in a
discombobulated economic Situation. You've Got two things going on at once
you've got people leaving, if It's 50%, now you're you're
backfilling. Half of those jobs Are people who've left and the
other half may be new jobs. Some of these are high skilled
positions like nurses or medical Technicians. And they are not
only in high demand due to a Shortage of trained applicants,
but also because of the waves of COVID-19 in various states that
have pushed some healthcare Systems to the brink. If you're somebody who perhaps
has a pre existing condition, You're caring for somebody who
has an additional vulnerability To Coronavirus. You're going to
be much more hesitant to go out And try to work if you don't
feel safe. So again, controlling The pandemic is number one. to
ending these supply chain Disruptions, Other jobs that take less time
to train up suitable candidates Such as driving buses for public
schools have also been filled With hundreds of National Guard
troops on state orders. Police And corrections officers have
been deeply affected by COVID-19 Deaths and also by employment
gaps caused by vaccine mandates. Prisons and jails in part due to
the tight confines have become Hot zones for the virus to
spread, which makes an already Hazardous job even less
appealing to those on the job Hunt. The National Guard is one
option that has been used in Massachusetts to fill in this
shortage. And it's been floated
As a potential option in Arizona
Guardsmen have also been Deployed to the border to help
with controversial immigration And border control missions. The
problems in the US that are Causing the labor shortage and
also the supply chain crunch are Complex. There are immediate pressures to
try to fix this or again look Like you're fixing it. Typically
in Previous expansions like this,
you get not only increases in Compensation, but you also get
employers changing their Attitudes or their perceptions
or views about who's employable. I mean, normally, when you see
an unemployment rate like this, You expect to see slow wage
growth, it's very strange to see Fast wage growth at a time of
still elevated unemployment. That's what tells us that the
problem is labor supply. Using the National Guard for too
many state and federal missions Could create problems for
servicemembers who are Maintaining other careers while
serving in what is advertised as A part time role. Other policy
positions, maybe better long Term options to ease the supply
chain crunch and harden the System against future shocks. Maybe getting the virus behind
us revving up the economic Engine of the United States to
full RPMs will produce an Important ship all those goods
that people want. And we'll get There by putting people back to
work. The National Guard isn't being
sent to help with unloading Cargo at ports yet, but the
problems the supply chain is Experiencing haven't been
solved. Things are starting to flow,
maybe some semiconductors are Arriving a little bit faster
than they used to that's they're Still a lot of ships off the
coast of La Exact same issues that played
much of our supply chains Globally affect domestic supply
chains, too, When it comes to the nitty
gritty of actually trying to Unspool a problem like that, you
know, things like training and
Safety issues come to mind. You
know how many, how many people Able to operate port mega cranes
are currently sitting in the California Guard, for example,
it could be none, it could be Way more than none. It's, it's
really hard to know that until You're they're trying to figure
it out, or they're trying to Actually plan the mission.
There's some things where the Cost benefit for using the guard
just might not be there. First, Let's Just look at the infrastructure
build that Bill has a total of $1.2 trillion that will be spent
over the next 10 years is going To make fundamental improvements
to our nation's infrastructure. The Biden administration is
trying to tackle these front and Center issues in the run up to
the 2022 midterm elections, The administration's economic
policies, and that includes both The American rescue plan, the
1.9 trillion that was passed in March of this year, have given
workers a lot more opportunity To go out and find jobs that
have higher pay and better Benefits. And what that means is
that Americans are having to Compete for workers in a way
that they weren't previously. The current workload for the
guard across the nation could Also result in unintended
consequences for the various National guard organizations Between trying to answer for for
federal deployments and Missions, increased training
schedules, so even if they're Not deploying, and then a
veritable flood of state Missions over the past 18
months, be them for the Pandemic, be it for civil
servants response, be it for Storm response, be it for
wildfire response, or if they're One of the 1000s of troops who
have been put along the Southwest border now. It it adds
up. And you know, we don't have A great handle on what all of
those effects might be.
