[Music] Foreign [Music] Rockin retail special consumers are Flush with cash thanks to a tight job Market in trillions in stimulus dollars The upcoming holiday shopping season Will test what consumers are willing to Spend their money on there's growing Anxiety over the cost of living in a Possible recession on the horizon the Biggest retailers even Amazon are Warning of tough times ahead it's all Down to this cost of living crisis with Inflation through the roof sitting Mortgages credit cards cars gas prices And of course grocery bills the housing Boom is now bust in many parts of the Country adding a bad year for stocks in The latest crypto crash and it's no Wonder consumer confidence is plunging Retailers know all this which is why They started holiday deals even earlier This year their number one goal getting You part with your money [Music] Foreign [Music] Loving that silky voice on the intro Welcome to Yahoo finance's Rockin retail Special I'm Brian sassy here in Oculus Uh New York City otherwise known as uh Westfield World Trade Center at 110 Stores uh maybe a little more than that
Open in this location 368 000 square Feet of retail space and guys I've been Walking around this uh for the past half Hour seeing a lot of tourists of course Is a major uh tourist Hub with the World Trade Center here you have various Subways that feed into this location a Lot of high-end shops like a John Varvatos you have boss you have Stuart Weitzman not a lot of course I'm looking At an Apple store right now a lot of not A lot of Shoppers in these stores just Yet not seeing a lot of folks carrying Bags but of course a couple days away From Black Friday and I would venture to Say these stores will eventually get Crowded as we near that big black Friday Holiday but enough about me uh blabbing Here let's welcome in our first guest Alex Mill CEO Mickey dragster I should Also note of course the longtime Legendary CEO of Gap and J crew Mickey Always good to see you where all the Shoppers they're not buying anything Well Um they probably will my guess is They're waiting for the prices to drop I Think Black Friday probably started a Week or so ago everyone's seems to be on Sale with lots of price cuts and uh been A tough a tough go the last month or two I have to give you a shout out I think It was three or four months ago you're On Yahoo finance live you said Brian I'm
Not seeing a lot of good things in Retail and nothing good really has come Out of retail since you said that Margins Under Pressure retailers were Too much inventory how do you think this Holiday season ultimately shakes out It's funny that you said that a lot of People say why are you so negative I say Because it's a negative out there I Think it's look I don't know for sure it Has to be difficult because of the Discounts in Black Friday literally Started a week ago with most most people Uh I I I don't think it's easy to call All my hunches it will be not a good one But we'll see when will inventories get Past their Peak I I'm in a Target I'm in A Walmart I go recently went yesterday To Roosevelt Field Mall there's so much Inventory in these stores But there's more in the the distribution Centers some of the companies are okay Uh I think it'll go away when the prices Get low enough to move the goods but uh We all planned to ambitiously uh for This fall and holiday and we own the Goods and uh if you don't make plan Which I don't think many people are You'll just have the goods Stack Up Who ultimately wins in this environment In this environment well last week I Think Walmart won Um trying to think of who else I think That was the first I've never heard you
Mention a Walmart well I don't usually But I think it's interesting that was a Food win And you know they counted as retail but I think half fair business is food a few Others reported and you know a lot of The reporting says they beat estimates But estimates seem to be very Conservative I don't know who else won Really I don't know Macy's was a Surprise a surprise but again you have To see the margins and you have to see How they end up this quarter November From what I hear And we had the same it's very difficult And now we're I guess entering I think We're in the second week or third week But uh what I hear anecdotally is that People are complaining about business is Black Friday still a big thing Uh I think it's been promoted to to the To the nth degree I think it's almost a Cliche And I don't think it's a big deal uh Personally but we don't I've never been Involved in a Black Friday uh business So it's a big deal and TV makes it a Bigger deal with lots of people lined up At the store we have to keep the lights On yeah right so talk to us about your Uh well your former employer Gap now They don't have a permanent CEO in there Why don't they just give you the gig Well you know I got into trouble when I
Saw you last yes I did so uh there are a Lot of my friends there I ended up Having to apologize to a number of them Uh so I I I I really can't talk about That please what's up what should they Look like Uh well they should look like Gap Looks I think it's a great opportunity To be the All-American uniform ish with Very fair prices and with good looking Clothes lots of color but you know Everyone needs to look good uh and you Know I think they'll do much better talk To us a little about Alex Mill uh why Still in the game well this is in your Blood I I imagine yeah well the game to Me is a hobby and a sport uh I my son Started it about 10 years ago and I Always liked the name and I like what I Had felt there I left uh J crew and I Was a little bored I was on some boards And all that and then I joined him and I Have some sack who was with me for 15 Years at Madewell and J Crew He quit on The temporary CEO and so I put them Together and I said wow I'm employed Again so I'm in work every day because You know I don't know what else I do I Don't play golf uh I don't sit on the Couch much but you're you're a bit of a Celebrity here we were sitting over There in the corner somebody came over To you completely unprompted said hey Mickey Drexler you must be Mickey
Drexler I sent an email to you 20 years Ago and you replied you acknowledge that Something was wrong with the product I Don't see a lot of other Merchants do That but give some advice to these Retail CEOs who who may not be doing That well you know most big corporations It's my personal private opinion uh very Bureaucratic you have to touch the team You have to touch the people and uh you Know I I uh a lot of them have big shots And I grew up in the Bronx so I don't Love big shots but I felt like everyone Else felt please say hello I I work here And you're important and I learned what Not to do and I grew up in the Bronx and That's kind of a a place where you Respect people you're ambitious and you Want to be recognized what is it like Working with your son We have we've worked it out okay it's Difficult for him and it was difficult For me but we've worked things out over The last year it was not easy uh before I let you go I have 30 seconds your big Prediction this holiday season it could Be a retailer that does well uh things Will shake out uh I I think huge sales Uh and I think it's not going to be a Very good one I hope I'm really wrong While it's always great to get some time With you Mickey Drexler thanks for Coming down here I know you're a busy Guy uh and this is not an easy location
Per se to get to yeah always nice to see You thank you so much all right coming Up we're gonna get out to a UPS Distribution center uh our very own Danny Romero visited that Distribution Center we'll bring Danny in on the other Side of the break [Music] [Music] Foreign [Music] Rockin retail special at the Oculus in New York City joining me now is our very Own Danny Romero who got to hang out in A distribution center for UBS in Manhattan ahead of holiday sounds pretty Cool yeah Shopping but guess what it's also this So I got an inside look at one of the UPS centers here in Manhattan on how They're tackling this holiday season Take a look As customers click Companies like UPS ship it starts with The planning of the job prior to the Actual unload where the data that comes In from the shipping labels is sorted The planners are then able to determine Which vehicles will get which packages And that sets up for the label Application processes throughout the Facility and allows for the package to Flow through the facility in the right Manner when you compare volume from last
Year to this year what does that look Like at this point we're seeing a slight Decrease and we said that that may Happen due to the fact that there's not An inventory shortage of goods in the Market Leo Cummings is the New York Operations manager at this UPS center on West 43rd Street in Manhattan well I can Tell you that all the packages that come Through this facility 90 of the packages In our Network go through some automated Facilities here's how automation works At this location packages passed through Machines like this That scans each parcel and spits out Another label giving workers a clear Indication to where that package is Going well automation here allows us to De-skill certain handling opportunities For us it allows us to make sure we're We're aware of what packages need to go In their final destination It's it's A great tool for the entire building to Use so we can identify what packages Truly belong and get to the customer Ultimately we want to get to the point Where the package is going to the right Vehicle so they can get to the right Customer Cummings says this has not Reduced their number of workers inside The facility automation allows you to Take out the variables this facility Processes more than 200 000 packages a
Day during this holiday season at this Site they've already started to ramp up From the plan aspect are we able to Handle extra volume are we able to Adjust when we have less volume so we're Ready for peak season Cummings says they Will continue to hire more people There's a great opportunity for people Last year alone over 35 000 seasonal employees became permanent Employees at UPS And those positions that you just heard They range from 15 to 36 dollars an hour But sozie there's also something else on The table for ups and that is one of the Largest rail unions rejected a tentative Deal so that really you know UPS is one Of the largest rail customers they sent Us a statement that reads we encourage An immediate resolution that is Beneficial to all parties and we believe That agreements can be reached a rail a Rail strike would cause unnecessary Impacts for the U.S economy and Consumers and UPS will Flex our Integrated smart Logistics Network to Serve our customers so the stakes are Really high here Brian or Danny Romero Good reporting now let's uh let's stay On all things supply chain here let's Bring in John gold the national retail Federation's vice president for Supply Chains and customs and John you just Heard Danny mention uh the potential
Railroad Strike and how debilitating Would this be for the retail shopping Season but look even the economy more Broadly look I think a to a rail strike Would cause two billion dollars in Damage a day for the US economy that's What the American Association railroads Has projected it's significant I mean Everybody relies on the rails to get Their goods to Market Imports exports Agriculture manufacturers waiting on Inputs to production also the sensitive Materials things like chlorine which Need to get into you know healthy Drinking water so this is significant if A rail strike were to occur on December 9th Yeah and speaking on labor you know Automation has been tossed around a lot In the conversation is that the future Of supply chain you know seeing on the Port side also the anything revolving Around supply chain I think technology And automation certainly are critical to The future of the supply chain we truly Want to have a 21st century Global Supply Chain we've got to bring Technology and automation into it we've Got to bring the workers into it as well They've got to be part of the discussion As we're talking about the future and Technology and automation they've got to Be part of that conversation but it is Going to be significant we've got to
Move forwards on getting that as a part Of the supply chain we've got to have Better visibility and better Connectivity for all the partners to Understand what's happening any stage in The supply chain for those that don't Have your expertise uh John would a Railroad Strike what does that mean the Truckers the logistics companies how can They pick up the slack is it would they Just be overrun with demand and orders So if a rail strike were to happen that Means the entire Freight rail system Would shut down that means products Moving from the ports moving in the Country exports moving out there is Something capacity to pick up in truck But you're not going to pick up all the Cargo that moves on truck on rail it Goes onto truck so we're gonna have Capacity issue well sounds like major Delays definitely major delays if it Were to happen obviously a short term Would be better but we hope there's no No disruption whatsoever yeah and Speaking of trucking you know California's has these this ambitious Plan to make their Trucking fleets uh You know change from diesel to Electric How feasible is that really for our Current environment our supply chain I Think is the truckers have said in California it's a challenge you don't Have the infrastructure in place to be
Able to do the the charging for the Trucks that are needed especially in our Ports we've got clean truck programs That are going to affect at the ports of Valley in Long Beach but we don't have The number of trucks we need we don't Have the infrastructure so I think many Shippers want to work with California Legislature and let's get to a Greener Economy but let's do it in a right way We don't force people out of business to Make it happen Uh inflation and the supply chain based On what you're seeing and based on what You're hearing from your contacts what Is the inflationary outlook look like Over the next six months I think Inflation continues to be a concern Obviously consumers continue to be Concerned about that but look we're Going to have a positive holiday season From what we've seen thus far the Research we've done we're looking at six To eight percent growth in the holiday Season this year so looking at 942 to 960 billion dollars in spending by Consumers so I think there's a lot of Unknowns to what happens going into next Year but I think retailers are trying to Plan their best to be ready for that Continuing consumer demand that we've Seen for the past 30 months and speaking Of that you know things have really Shifted on the west coast they've gone
From choke to fluid now but there's also A dilemma and that is on the warehousing Capacity what is the solution there I Mean I've heard that warehouses are now Expanding their outdoor space but how Much of that is really a temporary Solution yeah I think a lot of the Challenges we face on the west coast was Everybody bringing product in earlier in The season but also we've got the Ongoing labor negotiations on the west Coast that's why you saw such a shift This summer to the east coast and we've Got east coast and Gulf Coast ports of Fall I think warehousing certainly is is A challenge as you've had full Warehouses but I think as retailers Right size their inventory they're going To be better able to process that Inventory moving forwards but you know Making sure we're able to open up new Warehouses have better fulfillment Centers that are in place have Regulations that help incentivize Opening warehouses move warehouses you Know to other locations have Inland Locations where you can then shift cargo To there so I think there are some Options there but we've all got to work Together to make it happen is the labor Shortage in the trucking industry still As severe as it was a year ago from what We hear there still is a significant Driver shortage that we continue to face
Both on the uh the drainage side as well As the Long Haul side so I think labor Throughout the supply chain continues to Be a challenge yeah and I wanted to Shift gears a little bit on the U.S China trade dispute Saga do you believe That tariffs are inflationary and is it Really worth it giving our inflationary Environment right now we've said from The outset the terrorists were not the Right strategy deal they're trying to Trade issues we've been dealing with Putting tariffs on products for everyday Consumers doesn't make sense and has not Worked we haven't seen China make the Changes they were supposed to Um because of the tariffs so we think There's a better there are better Opportunities to engage China on some of These Trade Practices that not only Impact the U.S but impact our trading How do you engage them I think through ongoing dialogue I think Look having President Biden into President XI actually have a Conversation once again get that Dialogue going but then let's figure out Better path forward because the the Tariffs have implied on the China Imports impact U.S consumers impact U.S Manufacturers it only raises the cost of These Goods for the ultimate consumer do You see any change happening though Not right now but we want to continue to
See change hoping you know now with uscr Having their four-year review of the Tariffs hopefully now they're already Having an opportunity to talk about the Negative impact the tariffs have had Over the past four plus years Um and then again opening the door to Have those conversations with the Chinese which we haven't had in almost Two years I'm asking every guest that we have on Here their their big prediction for this Holiday season uh are empty shelves over What is your big prediction I think look Our big prediction we put our forecast Out a couple a couple weeks ago we're Looking at six to eight percent growth Over last year's holiday sales roughly 942 to 960 billion dollars in consumer Spending this year it's not recessionary That's not recessionary and I think look Consumers have continued to spend Throughout the pandemic and then some We've seen 30 plus months of Month-to-month growth in the retail Sector consumers want to go out and Continue to spend and celebrate the Holidays where they haven't been able to Do in the past so again we're looking For another positive holiday season We're looking at you know 166 million Consumers ready to engage in this Five-day holiday weekend we're gonna Have coming up either in store online so
Consumers ready to get out there I'm Ready to engage my man I'm gonna go out There and buy myself something I don't Know what it is but you know what I'm Gonna find it John gold National Retail Federation vice president for supply Chain and Customs good to see you and Daniel party on UPS good to see you Appreciate it all right straight ahead We're going to look at uh some worst and Best retail performers or general Clickeries at the Wi-Fi interactive that Big board back at H2 we'll be right back [Music] Foreign [Music] [Music] 's Rockin retail special I'm Brian sassy Here still in Oculus New York City uh at The World Trade Center but I want to get Back to Yahoo finance HQ and that is Where we find our very own Jared Blickery who is rocking that Wi-Fi Interactive looking at some of the best And worst retail performers so far this Year Jared yeah let me tell you Brian uh Let's break this down by sector first And this is a year-to-date look at the 11 S P 500 sectors what stands out is Energy is the only one in the green Following that we have consumer staples And that is a part of retail that's only Down about 2.2 percent to the downside Consumer discretionary that is down 32
Percent so kind of a bifurcation in Terms of what people need that staples Versus what they uh what they might not Need that's discretionary and here is a Similar look over the last month only Consumer discretionary and communication Services are in the red and I'll tell You what you peer into the retail sector Itself and guess what all of this not All of it but most of it is due to Amazon because we can see over the last Month many of these stocks if not most Almost all of them largely in the green Here Home Depot at 15 percent Walmart up 11 percent and if you're screening for Some winners to buy hoping on that Santa Claus rally into the end of the year and Technically it's really only the last Five days a year plus two days of the Following year but nevertheless if You're looking for some of those guys Want to show you who is the least worst Off from their highs now if we sort by Here we can see at the very top a lot of These consumer staples and also some of Those discounting stocks we got Dollar General that is only off uh one and a Half percent from its record or 52-week High excuse me TJX down two percent Ulta Beauty down 2.7 percent in fact if you Take a look at this top line here also Going into raw Stars Ross stores Walmart Dollar Tree BJ's Costco those are all Staples and basically selling people
Sell selling things that people need to The downside is where we find a lot of Those electronic retailers uh look at This down 89 percent wave Fair also Seeing that in Shopify down about 80 Percent and then Amazon we already took A look at that that's down 50 percent uh From its 52-week hybrid And Jerry you know what a good time for Me is buying plastic forks at Dollar General sharing everything with our Audience not I never hide anything but Besides that Jared I know you're also Crunching some data on how stocks trade During a holiday shorten trading week Yes fortunately uh Almanac Trader is Doing the heavy lifting for us this is Uh November and this is what the major Averages and he breaks them out Individually so we got four here uh due Over the month of November what's Notable is that we kind of go about Sideways to maybe a little bit down into The middle of the month and then just Around last Friday would be around the Turning Point tend to see that rise into The end of the month and his bottom line Here is the best short-term Trader Appears to be getting along into any Weakness in the week or days before the Holidays so presumably that would be Today today's a down day and selling any Subsequent rally toward the end of Thanksgiving week or before the end of
The month let me just show you what the S P 500 has been doing this is over the Last three months we can see after Hitting that low that recent low in fact That's the low of the year in October it Has been a steady climb up but kind of a Flagging just a little bit sideways Action here so maybe that Thanksgiving Rally going to take effect we'll have to See Brian All right Jared Samia Turkey Leg back There Yahoo finance HQ Jared blickery Thanks so much all right let's say on All things retail and economy let's Bring in a friend of the show MasterCard Chief U.S Economist Michelle Meyer Michelle it's actually the first time I'm seeing you in person after 10 years Of knowing you I think that's right all Right so take us through some of your Holly numbers I'm an avid consumer of The MasterCard spending pulse data how Do you think this holiday season will Shake out well it's interesting we're Forecasting just over seven percent Growth this holiday season for retail Sales X autos and we're really keenly Focused on what happens this Black Friday period we're looking for just Black Friday alone to be a 15 year over Year and I think what we learned so far From this season and looking at our high Frequency data is that the consumer is Focused on promotions they're looking
For those moments in time where they Feel like it's the appropriate point to Purchase to to to to you know go in full Full full ahead and and buy those Holiday gifts um so you see a bit of Fits and starts thus far and I wonder if That's going to continue into the rest Of the holiday season Michelle that's a Huge number 15 I thought we were nearing A recession you know part of the reason It is a big number is because last year Black Friday wasn't really Characteristic of Black Friday similarly As the year before because you didn't Have as much in-store purchasing you Didn't have the typical you know Doorbuster sales that you had in Prior Years last year and the year before that Was a lot more spread out it was much More concentrated online and retailers Also accommodated that or looked for That this year I think you're Anticipating and we'll see but it seems Like we're going to see a lot more of That in-person sales where people rush Out to get those promotions and make Sure they check everything off their List one thing that has surprised me Just talking to a lot of retail Executives as they have been reporting Earnings the past two weeks they're Telling us that consumers making over a Hundred thousand dollars a year those Higher income households they're trading
Down yeah I haven't heard that in some Time are you hearing that yeah I think That is you know um something we have to Keep an eye out for and I think we are Seeing to a certain extent and it makes Sense given the macro backdrop as you Noted before you know the economy has Been faced with high inflation a lot of Categories have seen you know extremely High price shocks Um we are seeing an environment of Higher interest rates the Federal Reserve is actively hiking rates and Anticipates will continue to hike Interest rates so the consumer is trying To navigate this environment so a Certain amount of trading down when Their budget is becoming more Constrained is makes a lot of sense also Consider where we're coming off of last Year and the year before was really Really strong when it comes to overall Consumer spending where consumers had a Lot of discretionary income to put to Work I'm really testing your knowledge Here but how concerned are you about the Savings rate really coming down the way I look at the decline the savings rate This year is people have tapped their Savings to go out there and buy food and Household household essential how Concerning is that for the economy as You look towards next year So it's gonna get a little wonky but
There's the rates far away that's what We're here for there's the rate of Savings and then there's the level of Savings so the rate of savings has Certainly come down and it will remain a Lot lower because in part people have a Stock of money still out there this Pandemic savings by our calculations About a quarter to maybe a third of that Cumulative pandemic savings has been Used so there's still some capacity out There to put that money to work but it Does mean that the rate of savings that Savings rate is going to mean Historically low for for some time as we Look towards next year we have a slowing Housing market yeah we have a stock Market that has just caused a lot of Wealth destruction how do consumers Adjust to that how do you see that Playing out So I think what you're speaking of this Idea of a negative wealth shot negative Yes negative wealth effect that you know Consumers are now seeing their finances Shift particularly those higher income Consumers that are more lover to the Stock market or maybe homeowners Um but I also think it's important to Think about the starting point right That the wealth effect doesn't happen Overnight it is a response to the Cumulative change in wealth that happens Over several years so a bit of what
We've seen throughout this year has been A payback from extraordinary Appreciation in the stock market even in The housing market as well home price Appreciation nationally and a year over Year basis ran above the peak rate in The early 2000s so we're now seeing the Normalization of that market and it's Happening quickly and it's causing some Ripples and some shocks and people have To adjust to that but it's it makes Sense that we're seeing these Adjustments given how excessive some of These gains were over the last few years Based on what you're seeing there and Just inflation inflation is still high I Know we had a positive reaction in Markets to that CP API index rolling Over a little bit a couple weeks ago but I mean do you see a recession at all Next year Inflation Point Um I think the October inflation report Was really important as the markets React and the reason that it was so Important is if you dig into the details What we're starting to see is core Goods Inflation come down some of the Categories that have the biggest price Increases are now starting to see some Declines that's critical and that Matters for how you think about the Possibility of a soft Landing because to The extent that inflation can come off
The highs that supply chain issues start To be resolved as you just spoke about That you know the demand story starts to Shift then you get a more natural Mitigation of inflation pressure which Means that maybe the FED doesn't have to Be as aggressive as slowing down the Economy in order to achieve their goals That's not to say the FED is done Clearly the FED still has more to go in Terms of interest rate hikes but it's Really the path forward for inflation And the success in terms of getting to Price stability that will dictate Whether or not we'll end up saying that Downturn or not when does the economy Feel the effect of these Fed rate hikes I guess what the old rule of thumb was Six months down what does that effect Even look like there's long and very Um so you know cheer Powell actually Talked about that in the last press Conference that they are quite aware of The lags they're studying them they Don't know exactly what those lags look Like and it's possible that the lags are A lot shorter now because of so much Forward guidance that goes into monetary Policy the market moves in advance of The actual changes in monetary policy so If those lags are indeed shorter than it You know from the FED they can react Maybe a bit more to real-time movements In the economy but it's a risk and they
Have to be aware of that because what They don't want to do is tighten too Much realize oops we overdid it the Economy is going to be too weak and then They have to pull that back so they're Going to tread very carefully I think From here on last 30 seconds your big Prediction for this holiday season I think experiences are still going to Be key um still be a priority in terms Of gifting and experiences Um spending on experiences travel Restaurants Recreation theater people Still want to go out and live and enjoy Themselves and they have to buy good Clothes to do that yes yes yes yes yes They do oh it's good to see you in Person chief U.S economy Michelle Meyer Have a Happy Thanksgiving thanks for Doing this appreciate it all right uh Still to come our very own Tech editor Dan and Halle he's been here for about Two hours sitting on the floor over There working on his top Tech deals he Will be on with us next [Music] Foreign [Music] [Music] Welcome back to Yahoo finance's uh Rocking retail special here at Oculus in New York City the energy well it's Popping and we're looking at a lot of Shops people are not exactly in them
Buying things but Black Friday of course Is right around the corner and that Means everybody mostly everybody will be Looking for awesome Tech gifts and Here's our very own Tech editor Dan Halley uh looking for the hottest Tech Items yeah yeah uh so every you know Holiday season comes around everybody Wants to get their hands on some kind of Tech for the people in their lives or Just for themselves that's kind of what I like to do so I do have a good list Hit us up some of the biggest items I Think despite coming out two years ago One of the biggest ones is still Sony's Playstation 5. it's been a bear for People to get them uh you had the the Kovitz shutdowns you had the chip Shortages you had huge amount of demand Not enough product it's still out there As one of the gifts that people really Want I was trying to get one the other Day for my buddy not paying for it he's Going to pay me back but it's still sold Out after that we have the Rival Xbox it Might not be as popular as the PlayStation but Microsoft has some Amazing Services they have Game Pass Which lets you get up to 300 games and You can just play on your Xbox without Having to buy them part of a Subscription and you have cloud gaming So if you're on the go and on your phone You can play those PC games or Xbox
Games on your device there's there's a Number that are outside of the gaming Space though uh one of the the more Obscure ones though I want to hit real Quick is the valve steam deck this is Think of a Nintendo switch don't even Know what that is yeah you're not Supposed to say that but I've never Heard of it the steam deck oh it's it's Awesome it's basically a Nintendo switch That lets you play PC games it's 3.99 a Little on the pricier side it's a little Chunky too but it's really really cool If you're a big PC Gamer outside of Gaming though there's you know the the Kind of the Murderers Row right we have The iPhone 14 pro I might have one in my Hand right now very very important too I Mean we're supposed to get Best Buy Earnings this speak to as well that is Supposed to be a key driver I would Really be listening to that Best Buy Earnings call to see the adoption on That new iPhone that is a great holiday Season too and it's it's the bigger one The the pro so that's the one that's Gonna you know Drive ASP for apple and Also the one that's kind of hard to get Now because of those coveted shutdowns So if you are shopping for one for Somebody for the holidays make sure that You go sooner rather than later because You might not be able to get it later on In the holiday season Apple also has the
Apple watch there's the SC in the series Eight don't go for the ultra it's 800 And unless you're you know climbing Everything I mean no let's look a Million are busts that's what I like to Spend give me a couple of Rollies so I Would say for most people go with the SE That one's going to run you a little bit Less than the series eight uh we're Talking about around 249 the series 8 is 3.99 I have the series eight on because I'm I'm bougie and that's what I like to Go for there's also the airpods pro they Got the new airpods the second Generation airpods Pro great noise Cancellation uh great transparency mode Kind of increases the ambient noise Around you so if you go for a run night And you're you know kind of creeped out You can hear what's going on around you More and then outside of Apple we have Google actually they care about Google This year I'm throwing out the pixel 7 Great smartphone uh relatively Inexpensive Google throws all that Google AI magic in there improves the Camera capabilities uh you have photo Editing you have true tone so it's it's A great great smartphone it's also just Straight up Android so there's not a Whole bunch of other stuff thrown on top Of it and then believe it or not they Also have a great smart watch too called The pixel watch that thing is beautiful
It's the first Android Smart Watch did They get the battery right yet I have a Google OS operating watch for golf I Have a golf watch the battery dies it Doesn't even make it doesn't make it Around Dan it's it's gonna go I'll give You about a day maybe a day and a half It's horrible if you turn if you turn The always-on display off the Apple Watch will last you a little bit longer With the always-on display on and then Outside of those gifts you know there's An echo done right there's a new Echo Dot Amazon Alexa it's got the clock Built in it's not bad and outside of all These items and just because you're on Staff you're still getting this question Your biggest prediction from the tech Space this holiday season it's Holly Season uh you know it's it's hard I Think we were talking about the iPhone We're talking about how it's gonna be Difficult for people to get their hands On it Apple really needs the iPhone to Do well this holiday season the holiday Season is when so many people go out and Buy their devices I think it might be a Little bit of a disappointment just Because you know we're talking about These lockdowns they lasted longer uh in That Factory uh that really produces the Pro and the pro Max that's where they Get the bulk of their iPhone money That's also the one that people want the
Most it has that new Dynamic Island it Has the better camera it has the better Display so I think it might be a little Disappointing there I also want to throw Out gaming might do a little bit better Than we're expecting but it could still You know it's not going to push the year Over year to uh new limits or anything We've seen a pullback in Mobile gaming We have that's all advertising and That's part of the reason why gaming Suffered so far this year they're not Getting the mobile ads and you know you Look at an Activision Blizzard their Mobile side all about ads I mean anybody That's anybody that's in the gaming Space and in the advertising spaces you Know dealing with that kind of pullback But you know if you can still get a PlayStation 5. I'm root I'll let you do Your thing across the way is that uh big Bright uh Apple Store seeing some Shoppers in there Dan Halley Tech editor For Yahoo finance always good to see my Man appreciate it All right uh we're talking all things Retail of course and our Rock and Retail Special uh Oculus New York City not Really seeing a lot of Shoppers per se Uh but a lot of tourists out here at This location very much looking forward To talking to our next guest uh that is Retail analyst Heather Herzog talk about Uh luxury shopping you name it uh Etc
We'll be right back the price of things Have gone up my salary hasn't been um Hasn't gone up is to the same so it's Really affected a lot of my decision Making it's a little bit difficult but You know if you save you can make it Work Um inflation is affecting everybody I I Will be spending more more time shopping Online Absolutely I'm trying to spend less I plan on spending smarter so hopefully That's less All right a little uh short break uh Here uh Yahoo finance is Rockin retail Special still Oculus in New York City Still planted in the seats still Watching Shoppers maybe buy some High-end luxury goods and speaking of Luxury we have our friend of the show uh Retail analyst heatha Herzog I think It's been forever good to see you it Really has been forever so we have a Long history yes yes we do talking Retail I know luxury you love talking About luxury shopping how do you think That luxury Shopper will come out this Holiday season you know it's interesting Brian we've really saw a v-shape Recovery with the luxury sector past Post pandemic I should say but now I Think what's happening just in terms of You know the high-end Shoppers Definitely going to buy luxury but when
You come to that middle range Shopper That aspirational Shopper they're the Ones that are going to feel the crunch Because of all of these headwinds we are Seeing because of the inflation issues We were seeing and also with supply Chain what are they buying what is a High-end Shopper shopping for oh Hermes Handbags for sure uh if you if you some Of the statistics that were coming out Of Hermes uh I think they had increased Prices by almost 4 four to five percent And revenues had increased 20 to 30 Percent and there they plan on Increasing the prices of the bag so Right now you have these bags going for At the minimum ten thousand dollars so Those high-end Shoppers are going to be Buying those handbags you know what is It's interesting you know we're just Talking to Michelle Meyer uh Mastercard's U.S Chief Economist that Pullback in high-end consumers I have Not heard that since probably the Great Recession right I think it was right Around the time when we knew each other We met each other we still know each Other but we know each other of course But when we started doing this together Uh we started out in our our respective Careers uh the Great Recession happened And we saw that pullback from the High-end Shopper and I remember people Were even hiding their bags of where
They were shopping I don't think we're Going to see that it took my next Question that's exactly what I was going The luxury got shunned I mean if the Economy is slowing down again do you Think we're going back there where we're No longer buying coach sea bags anymore Well this is what's going on A study by Oracle said that 88 of people Just want new experiences 45 of those People haven't really felt happiness in Two years so what you're going to see Those 45 of people doing is going into Stores to try to get that happiness back That regain that happening happiness It's terrible two years they have not Felt happiness so they're going to go Into stores they're going to want to go Into the Keel store and get their skin Checked they're going to want to go into All these other stores and just Experience life if you think about it The American Consumer this is a great Professional Pastime people like to go Shopping so it's all about those Retailers bringing in the experience so That people can experience that well I'll speak for you for a second I Imagine you've been happy over the past Two years I know I definitely have been Happy but let's go from luxury to Specialty power we just had former Gap Uh CEO Mickey Drexel wow what an icon of Retail uh talking about Gap a little bit
But what's the future for a company like That he thought I just don't see it I Don't see it I don't see it I think What's going on with these companies Especially those middle range companies They need to understand that it's all About inventory control and making sure That they have a good pacing of what's Coming out in the store so have a real Understanding of what's going on with Their consumer base and understand how That consumer is shopping are they Coming into stores do they really want To see Kanye West collection in massive Bags on the floor I don't think so but That just goes to show you that they Don't know what the consumer base is yet Will they get back to it I'm sure but You know that's it's all about returning To who their Shopper is and how they Shop you've been covering retail for for A while it's surprising that Gap Couldn't figure out a way to make money Off of Kanye West It it is a little surprising but from What I understand there were a lot of Cooks in the kitchen and a lot of people Weighing in on what was going on with That collaboration uh you know as we saw Um Mr Yi I don't know what he goes by Now but yay uh he was uh you know saying That uh to my point there were a lot of Cooks in the kitchen and no one we could Make a decision so uh you know when you
Have that situation I can only imagine How difficult that must be a little bit More of a positive story and one that Surprised me is Macy's I also not Macy's Earnings call us we got he thought was Shocked Bloomingdale's doing pretty well Uh they were selling discretionary items A completely different story than what We heard from Kohl's Macy's has turned Into like a comeback story here I think What ended up happening with Macy's is They finally got a clue that they needed To bring younger people to the table and One collaboration they are doing which I Love is that for their VIP customers They are incorporating cameos from the Santa to talk to the kids of the VIP Customers so these kids are going to to Be getting actual videos from Santa Which is absolutely genius this is how People shop now people want that Experience to your point that's what Gives true happiness and in terms of Bloomingdale's I have a friend that's a Former executive of Beauty and Fashion There and the way that is merchandising And what she's told me it's quite Astounding I mean the way that Everything is laid out and how it just Draws in that Shopper Brian it's all About what that Shopper is going to Experience this holiday season and if Those retailers can really hit the nail On the head with that well they haven't
Figured it out by today there's an issue I just had a moment of unhappiness Because I remember thinking back my mom Would take me to Sears to go visit Santa Now they're getting cameos now they're Getting welcome to 2022 Brian exactly I Know I'm a couple years behind last Before the last thing before I let you Go I'm asking everybody their retail Predictions for this holiday season hit Us with one I think the consumer's still Going to shop I think what we're going To see is a real issue come February March when those credit card bills start Coming in but I think you know as I said People want to feel true happiness They're going to go out there and They're probably going to buy on a lot Of debt and then the reality is going to Hit them in the face come February March All right we'll say this too we didn't Plan these colors even though we each Other for a long time heat the Herzog Retail analyst always good to see you Happy uh Happy Holidays happy holidays All right we will be right back from Oculus our rocket retail special well it Rolls right along [Music] Foreign [Music] Welcome back to Yahoo finance's Rockin Retail special from Oculus in New York City and who doesn't love some good face
Cream I use it every single day because Look look at this face I'm really 20 Years old all because of the face cream So let's stay on this in personal care Products with Keels is uh David Cohen New York City district manager good to See you here thanks for having me I Imagine this is a big week for you and The team yeah it's huge I mean it is now Go time we've spent months preparing for This Um it's a really exciting week for us And we're really looking forward to some Great things how do you prepare for a Black Friday week like this so you know The the win is all in the preparation Right so it's making sure that we have The right people who are trained we have A very extensive training program that's Really focused on ingredients so our Skin Pros which is who we call our team Our skin Pros are ready to serve our Customers and give expert advice what Are consumers coming into kills for Nowadays you know it varies right so a Lot of people are coming in for their Favorites that they've used for years And years I mean Keels has been around Since 8 1851 we started here in New York City in the East Village right on the Corner of 13th and 3rd so we have a Large Heritage customer who comes in Looking for their old favorites the Ultra facial moisturizer the ultra
Facial creams you know and then also we Have some newer clients who are looking For something that lifts tones firms and You know we have a little something for Everybody Keels are you trying to send Me a message I'm trying to sell you Something okay you know I think I'm Still looking pretty yum you know maybe I'm not so when you know when who's the Customer demographic uh is it you know The 40 year old male now starting to Navigate into your stores a little bit It really varies I mean Keels is about Skin care for all plain and simple and We see everybody we see Um you know older folks younger folks Folks of different genders really Looking for great skin care advice from Our skin care pros and we're happy to to Take care of that how is the selling Process change you mentioned there's a Lot of training that is going on right Now yeah Customer traffic to all stores it's Sparse because everybody's shopping Online how have you had to retrain the Workforce you know Um we really focus on delighting our Customers plain and simple and really Making the most of every interaction and Really what separates us is our skin Pro Is that person who's giving amazing Advice and creating a one-to-one Experience where you know they want to
Come back right and they want to shop With us are the products how is Inflation impacting the business you Know have you had to take up prices at All Um since I've been with Keels I've not Seen a price increase all right so you Are a friend uh friends to the consumer So take us through some of these Products yeah what do you have there What do you got amazing so um first this Is our Ultra facial Barrier cream which We just launched it actually Launches on December 1st and it's available actually Right now in stores so what is this Supposed to do it is immediately Supposed to soothe and repair your skin So it starts off like a balm so you'll Feel it kind of thick instantly and then It uh goes down into an ice cream so It's for your face it's for your hands Or for your knees or anti-aging So The properties of it are about soothing And repairing so it doesn't really have A lot of anti-aging properties in it However because it hydrates the skin and Provides a nice Skin Barrier and it's Nice and warm I like it so because it Prevents uh moisture from leaving it Also helps to keep you young looking Yeah what uh what are do you think some Of the top sellers would be do you sell Like baskets does that that's the little
Thing in Personal Care oh we don't Actually sell baskets per se we have a Lot of great gift sets that deal with or That speak to hydration that speak to You know gift giving for teachers and Your neighbors and all varying price Points that are really focused on Ingredients that are efficacious and Also really do something right so Um whether there's an anti-aging set or There's a hydration set there's always There's a little something for everybody I just wiped off 10 years by putting That on my forehead congratulations oh I Appreciate it looking good I appreciate You so before we let you go uh what is Your Black Friday like you're close on Thanksgiving right we are close on Things open up again on on Black Friday Take us through that day how crazy is it You know considering we are in this World where people are buying stuff Online yeah so you know while I can't Predict what's going to happen on Black Friday you know I wish I I had a crystal Ball that I could do that Um what I do know is that we are really Excited about our Trends right now that We're seeing since last weekend and Looking forward to that you know Continuing through Black Friday and what We're focused on right now is just Making sure that our teams are ready That they're trained that we have the
Right amount of product because when our Customers come into our stores what They're looking for is an amazing Experience right and our excuse me our Skin Pros are able to deliver that well Thanks for taking some time I know this Is very very busy week David Cohen Keel's New York City district manager Good luck get some sleep thank you Appreciate the product yeah thank you That's uh that's it for me at the Oculus New York City uh Yahoo finance is rock And Retail special uh again uh the Crowds of sparse here this is a major Tourist Hub here in New York City I Imagine as Black Friday near those shops Will in fact be full that's it for me
